ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Chojniczanka Chojnice

Rekord Bielsko-Biała Home · Elo 1,529
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chojniczanka Chojnice Away · Elo 1,548
Stadion BTS Rekord Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rekord Bielsko-Biała win
Rekord Bielsko-Biała winPick
43.7%
Draw
25.9%
Chojniczanka Chojnice win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Rekord Bielsko-Biała history67 matches
Chojniczanka Chojnice history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rekord Bielsko-Biała are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,529 against 1,548. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Chojniczanka Chojnice score more

    1.22 goals a game over 67 matches for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, against 1.64 over 72 for Chojniczanka Chojnice.

  • Defences are close

    Rekord Bielsko-Biała concede 1.39 a game, Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Rekord Bielsko-Biała matches, against 54% for Chojniczanka Chojnice. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Chojniczanka Chojnice
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.5
ELO
1548.2
67
ELO · Matches
72
1528.5
Current Team ELO
1548.2
1548.2
Current Opponent ELO
1528.5
-19.68
Current ELO Difference
19.68
0.47
Expected score
0.53
67
History Matches
72
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.33
Overperformance
51.91
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
72
1.34
PPG
1.56
34.3%
Win rate
43.1%
31.3%
Draw rate
26.4%
34.3%
Loss rate
30.6%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
28.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
39
1.47
PPG
1.46
37.5%
Win rate
38.5%
34.4%
Draw rate
30.8%
28.1%
Loss rate
30.8%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
32
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.64
70.1%
Scoring rate
80.6%
52.2%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.54
71.9%
Scoring rate
76.9%
53.1%
BTTS rate
59.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
67
History Matches
72
1.22
Goals Mean
1.64
1.08
Goals Std
1.26
70.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
37.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
10.4%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.36
73.1%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.33
71.9%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
67
History Matches
72
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.23
Conceded Std
1.10
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
72
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.67
0.08
Stability score
2.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
71
20
Lead Matches
24
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.79
24
Trailing Matches
21
29.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
78.69
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
34
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
26
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.20
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.59
0.60
Portability PPG Range
1.87
70.85
Portability Score
45.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-19.68
PPG-0.21
GF-0.42
GA0.03
PPG0.20
PPG0.01
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-1.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate9.2%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-1.27
Portability Score24.99
Rest days-1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.03
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-19.68
Current Opponent ELO19.68
Current ELO Difference-39.35
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

L
Hutnik Kraków3–2Rekord Bielsko-Biała31 Oct · away
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 63% · hit
D
Rekord Bielsko-Biała1–1Resovia Rzeszów24 Oct · home
Pick: Rekord Bielsko-Biała 54% · missed
L
Znicz Pruszków1–0Rekord Bielsko-Biała18 Oct · away
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 54% · hit
L
Górnik Łęczna1–0Rekord Bielsko-Biała30 Aug · away
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chojniczanka Chojnice

W
Chojniczanka Chojnice1–0Avia Świdnik2 Nov · home
Pick: Chojniczanka Chojnice 41% · hit
L
Chojniczanka Chojnice2–3Legia Warszawa II24 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 44% · hit
W
Hutnik Kraków1–2Chojniczanka Chojnice17 Oct · away
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 53% · missed
L
Górnik Łęczna3–1Chojniczanka Chojnice4 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 45% · hit
D
Sokół Kleczew1–1Chojniczanka Chojnice29 Aug · away
Pick: Sokół Kleczew 43% · missed

About this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała and Chojniczanka Chojnice meet in II Liga - East on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion BTS Rekord. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rekord Bielsko-Biała win 43.7%, draw 25.9%, Chojniczanka Chojnice win 30.3%. The pick is Rekord Bielsko-Biała win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.