ScoreProb
Australian Championship Australia Round 4 2026

Avondale vs Adelaide City

Avondale Home · Elo 1,621
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Adelaide City Away · Elo 1,631
Avenger park, Melbourne Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Avondale win
Avondale winPick
55.9%
Draw
20.4%
Adelaide City win
23.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.5%
No38.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%

How much we know

Avondale history62 matches
Adelaide City history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Avondale are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,621 against 1,631. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Avondale score more

    2.50 goals a game over 62 matches for Avondale, against 1.93 over 45 for Adelaide City.

  • Adelaide City concede fewer

    Avondale concede 1.27 a game, Adelaide City 1.02.

  • Avondale games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Avondale matches, against 60% for Adelaide City. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Avondale
Adelaide City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1621.2
ELO
1630.7
62
ELO · Matches
45
1621.2
Current Team ELO
1630.7
1630.7
Current Opponent ELO
1621.2
-9.50
Current ELO Difference
9.50
0.49
Expected score
0.51
62
History Matches
45
0.10
Residual Mean
0.14
57.85
Overperformance
59.77
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.60
2.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.50
Goals against per game
0.30
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
3.59
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
45
1.98
PPG
1.96
61.3%
Win rate
57.8%
14.5%
Draw rate
22.2%
24.2%
Loss rate
20.0%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
71.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
54.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
23
2.21
PPG
1.91
67.6%
Win rate
56.5%
17.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
14.7%
Loss rate
21.7%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
73.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
61.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
2.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
34
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.50
Goals for per game
1.93
90.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
66.1%
BTTS rate
48.9%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.65
94.1%
Scoring rate
73.9%
70.6%
BTTS rate
39.1%
62
History Matches
45
2.50
Goals Mean
1.93
1.89
Goals Std
1.54
90.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
64.5%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
43.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.02
74.2%
Conceding rate
62.2%
1.09
Goals against per game
0.96
76.5%
Conceding rate
56.5%
62
History Matches
45
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.11
Conceded Std
1.09
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.4%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
9.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
45
0.84
Result entropy
0.89
2.43
Goal Difference Std
1.95
15.94
Stability score
11.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
45
32
Lead Matches
22
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.94
13
Trailing Matches
8
30.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
1.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.95
Rest days
84.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
29
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.54
Portability PPG Range
0.44
66.47
Portability Score
69.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.50
PPG0.03
GF0.57
GA0.25
PPG0.29
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate16.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.61
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.56
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score4.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.26
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate5.8%
Trailing Win Rate10.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.09
Portability Score-2.85
Rest days-6.82
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO-9.50
Current Opponent ELO9.50
Current ELO Difference-19.00
Expected score-0.03
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-1.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Avondale

L
Wests APIA5–2Avondale1 Nov · away
Pick: Avondale 46% · missed
L
Avondale1–2Broadmeadow Magic24 Oct · home
Pick: Avondale 54% · missed
W
Avondale2–0Hume City29 Aug · home
Pick: Avondale 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Adelaide City

L
Broadmeadow Magic3–2Adelaide City30 Oct · away
Pick: Broadmeadow Magic 60% · hit
L
Adelaide City1–3Wests APIA23 Oct · home
Pick: Adelaide City 70% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Avondale and Adelaide City meet in Australian Championship on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Avenger park, Melbourne. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Avondale win 55.9%, draw 20.4%, Adelaide City win 23.7%. The pick is Avondale win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.7%. Both teams to score: 61.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.