ScoreProb
Australian Championship Australia Round 4 2026

South Hobart vs Lions

South Hobart Home · Elo 1,633
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lions Away · Elo 1,668
Darcy Street Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: South Hobart win
South Hobart winPick
49.0%
Draw
15.7%
Lions win
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.0%
No35.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.8%
Under 2.527.2%

How much we know

South Hobart history46 matches
Lions history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why South Hobart are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lions are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,668 against 1,633. On rating alone Lions would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • South Hobart score more

    3.35 goals a game over 46 matches for South Hobart, against 2.38 over 48 for Lions.

  • Lions concede fewer

    South Hobart concede 1.28 a game, Lions 1.00.

  • South Hobart games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of South Hobart matches, against 69% for Lions. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
South Hobart
Lions@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1633.2
ELO
1668.2
46
ELO · Matches
48
1633.2
Current Team ELO
1668.2
1668.2
Current Opponent ELO
1633.2
-35.01
Current ELO Difference
35.01
0.45
Expected score
0.55
46
History Matches
48
0.14
Residual Mean
0.18
59.83
Overperformance
62.36
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
3.00
2.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.50
2.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
70.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
48
2.20
PPG
2.25
69.6%
Win rate
70.8%
10.9%
Draw rate
12.5%
19.6%
Loss rate
16.7%
97.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
65.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
3.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
2.17
PPG
2.00
69.6%
Win rate
65.2%
8.7%
Draw rate
4.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
30.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
82.6%
65.2%
Over 3.5 rate
52.2%
3.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
3.35
Goals for per game
2.38
91.3%
Scoring rate
93.8%
60.9%
BTTS rate
52.1%
3.30
Goals for per game
2.43
91.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
56.5%
BTTS rate
69.6%
46
History Matches
48
3.35
Goals Mean
2.38
2.37
Goals Std
1.35
91.3%
Scored 1+ rate
93.8%
78.3%
Scored 2+ rate
72.9%
56.5%
Scored 3+ rate
41.7%
3.30
Venue Goals Mean
2.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.00
69.6%
Conceding rate
54.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.39
65.2%
Conceding rate
69.6%
46
History Matches
48
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.25
Conceded Std
1.17
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.1%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
48
0.74
Result entropy
0.73
3.15
Goal Difference Std
1.73
26.01
Stability score
26.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
48
26
Lead Matches
24
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.93
8
Trailing Matches
7
25.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
1.54
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
1.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
74.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.29
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.13
Portability PPG Std
0.14
2.48
Portability PPG Range
0.32
30.65
Portability Score
78.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-35.01
PPG-0.05
GF0.97
GA0.28
PPG0.17
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.97
Goals Std1.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate5.3%
Scored 3+ rate14.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate9.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std1.42
Stability score-0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.88
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate0.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.29
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.99
Portability PPG Range2.16
Portability Score-47.78
Rest days2.23
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-35.01
Current Opponent ELO35.01
Current ELO Difference-70.03
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

South Hobart

L
South Hobart1–2Preston Lions31 Oct · home
Pick: Preston Lions 48% · hit
L
Wollongong Wolves2–0South Hobart25 Oct · away
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 43% · hit
W
Lions1–2South Hobart18 Oct · away
Pick: Lions 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lions

W
Wollongong Wolves1–3Lions31 Oct · away
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 41% · missed
W
Lions2–1Preston Lions22 Oct · home
Pick: Preston Lions 40% · missed
L
Lions1–2South Hobart18 Oct · home
Pick: Lions 48% · missed
W
Lions4–1Peninsula Power30 Aug · home
Pick: Lions 55% · hit
W
Lions4–0North Sunshine Eagles25 Aug · home
Pick: Lions 61% · hit

About this match

South Hobart and Lions meet in Australian Championship on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Darcy Street. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: South Hobart win 49.0%, draw 15.7%, Lions win 35.3%. The pick is South Hobart win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.8%. Both teams to score: 65.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.