ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

AZ Picerno vs Bari

AZ Picerno Home · Elo 1,493
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bari Away · Elo 1,476
Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio, Picerno Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bari win
AZ Picerno win
32.5%
Draw
29.5%
Bari winPick
38.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

AZ Picerno history58 matches
Bari history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bari are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,476. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • AZ Picerno score more

    1.21 goals a game over 58 matches for AZ Picerno, against 1.05 over 61 for Bari.

  • Defences are close

    AZ Picerno concede 1.31 a game, Bari 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of AZ Picerno matches, against 49% for Bari. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AZ Picerno
Bari
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.0
ELO
1475.8
58
ELO · Matches
61
1493.0
Current Team ELO
1475.8
1475.8
Current Opponent ELO
1493.0
17.16
Current ELO Difference
-17.16
0.52
Expected score
0.48
58
History Matches
61
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.59
Overperformance
48.94
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
61
1.17
PPG
1.18
25.9%
Win rate
29.5%
39.7%
Draw rate
29.5%
34.5%
Loss rate
41.0%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
49.2%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.7%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.34
PPG
0.72
27.6%
Win rate
13.8%
51.7%
Draw rate
31.0%
20.7%
Loss rate
55.2%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.05
69.0%
Scoring rate
67.2%
58.6%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.41
Goals for per game
0.79
72.4%
Scoring rate
55.2%
62.1%
BTTS rate
48.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
61
1.21
Goals Mean
1.05
1.19
Goals Std
0.98
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
26.2%
6.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.38
74.1%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.72
69.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
61
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.10
Conceded Std
1.19
43.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.0%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.63
1.36
Stability score
1.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
61
18
Lead Matches
14
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
14
21.4%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.16
Rest days
80.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
40
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.45
Portability PPG Range
0.95
69.09
Portability Score
54.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO17.16
PPG-0.01
GF0.16
GA-0.07
PPG0.00
PPG0.62
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate11.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate2.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score0.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score14.57
Rest days-1.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO17.16
Current Opponent ELO-17.16
Current ELO Difference34.32
Expected score0.05
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AZ Picerno

W
Cavese1–2AZ Picerno31 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Picerno 45% · hit
W
AZ Picerno3–0Salernitana26 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Picerno 51% · hit
L
Barletta1–0AZ Picerno18 Oct · away
Pick: Barletta 40% · hit
L
AZ Picerno1–2Cosenza12 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Picerno 52% · missed
L
Potenza4–2AZ Picerno4 Oct · away
Pick: Potenza 59% · hit

Bari

D
Bari1–1Scafatese31 Oct · home
Pick: Bari 50% · missed
L
Potenza2–1Bari27 Oct · away
Pick: Potenza 53% · hit
D
Casertana1–1Bari23 Oct · away
Pick: Casertana 41% · missed
D
Bari0–0Crotone18 Oct · home
Pick: Bari 45% · missed
L
Salernitana2–1Bari4 Oct · away
Pick: Salernitana 47% · hit

About this match

AZ Picerno and Bari meet in Serie C - Girone C on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio, Picerno. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: AZ Picerno win 32.5%, draw 29.5%, Bari win 38.0%. The pick is Bari win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.