ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Team Altamura vs Cavese

Team Altamura Home · Elo 1,484
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cavese Away · Elo 1,463
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Team Altamura win
Team Altamura winPick
52.1%
Draw
22.6%
Cavese win
25.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes39.2%
No60.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.9%
Under 2.557.1%

How much we know

Team Altamura history55 matches
Cavese history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Team Altamura are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,484 against 1,463. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.96 goals a game over 55 matches for Team Altamura, against 0.93 over 57 for Cavese.

  • Defences are close

    Team Altamura concede 1.27 a game, Cavese 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Team Altamura matches, against 33% for Cavese. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Team Altamura
Cavese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.0
ELO
1462.9
55
ELO · Matches
57
1484.0
Current Team ELO
1462.9
1462.9
Current Opponent ELO
1484.0
21.07
Current ELO Difference
-21.07
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
57
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.89
Overperformance
47.83
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
57
1.22
PPG
1.12
30.9%
Win rate
26.3%
29.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.4%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
1.41
PPG
0.86
37.0%
Win rate
17.9%
29.6%
Draw rate
32.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.96
Goals for per game
0.93
72.7%
Scoring rate
63.2%
52.7%
BTTS rate
42.1%
1.22
Goals for per game
0.86
85.2%
Scoring rate
57.1%
59.3%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
57
0.96
Goals Mean
0.93
0.87
Goals Std
0.88
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
63.2%
16.4%
Scored 2+ rate
24.6%
3.6%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.19
74.5%
Conceding rate
70.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.50
74.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
57
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.09
Conceded Std
1.00
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.8%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.30
0.91
Stability score
1.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
15
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.84
22
Trailing Matches
17
22.7%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
80.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.25
96.03
Portability Score
79.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.07
PPG0.10
GF0.03
GA0.08
PPG3.00
PPG0.55
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate9.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-0.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score16.15
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO21.07
Current Opponent ELO-21.07
Current ELO Difference42.15
Expected score0.06
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Team Altamura

W
Sorrento1–2Team Altamura31 Oct · away
Pick: Sorrento 43% · missed
D
Team Altamura2–2Potenza23 Oct · home
Pick: Potenza 49% · missed
W
Cosenza1–3Team Altamura18 Oct · away
Pick: Cosenza 42% · missed
D
Audace Cerignola0–0Team Altamura4 Oct · away
Pick: Audace Cerignola 55% · missed
D
Inter U231–1Team Altamura29 Aug · away
Pick: Inter U23 36% · missed

Cavese

L
Cavese1–2AZ Picerno31 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Picerno 45% · hit
L
Foggia1–0Cavese25 Oct · away
Pick: Foggia 48% · hit
W
Cavese5–2Casarano18 Oct · home
Pick: Cavese 37% · hit
D
Barletta1–1Cavese12 Oct · away
Pick: Barletta 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Team Altamura and Cavese meet in Serie C - Girone C on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Team Altamura win 52.1%, draw 22.6%, Cavese win 25.3%. The pick is Team Altamura win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.9%. Both teams to score: 39.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.