ScoreProb
NB III - Northwest Hungary Northwest - 15 2026

Balatonalmádi vs Pápai Perutz

Balatonalmádi Home · Elo 1,461
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pápai Perutz Away · Elo 1,399
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pápai Perutz win
Balatonalmádi win
32.0%
Draw
16.9%
Pápai Perutz winPick
51.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.3%
Under 2.528.7%

How much we know

Balatonalmádi history6 matches
Pápai Perutz history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Pápai Perutz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Balatonalmádi are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,461 against 1,399. On rating alone Balatonalmádi would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Pápai Perutz score more

    1.33 goals a game over 6 matches for Balatonalmádi, against 1.49 over 35 for Pápai Perutz.

  • Defences are close

    Balatonalmádi concede 2.50 a game, Pápai Perutz 2.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Balatonalmádi matches, against 74% for Pápai Perutz. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Balatonalmádi
Pápai Perutz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.4
ELO
1398.6
6
ELO · Matches
35
1461.4
Current Team ELO
1398.6
1398.6
Current Opponent ELO
1461.4
62.86
Current ELO Difference
-62.86
0.59
Expected score
0.41
6
History Matches
35
-0.29
Residual Mean
-0.14
43.33
Overperformance
41.05
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
6
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.80
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
2.50
Goals against per game
2.40
16.7%
Win rate
20.0%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.20
0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
35
0.50
PPG
0.74
16.7%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
83.3%
Loss rate
65.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
74.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.3%
3.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
17
0.75
PPG
0.41
25.0%
Win rate
11.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
5.9%
75.0%
Loss rate
82.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
94.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
82.4%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
4
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.49
66.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.65
50.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
25.0%
BTTS rate
76.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
35
1.33
Goals Mean
1.49
1.70
Goals Std
1.38
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.50
Goals against per game
2.74
83.3%
Conceding rate
94.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
3.94
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.25
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
6
History Matches
35
2.50
Conceded Mean
2.74
1.98
Conceded Std
2.05
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
68.6%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
45.7%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
3.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
35
0.41
Result entropy
0.80
3.08
Goal Difference Std
2.50
58.99
Stability score
20.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
35
1
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
37.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.46
3
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.85
Rest days
84.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
3
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.13
—
Portability PPG Range
0.27
—
Portability Score
78.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO62.86
PPG-0.24
GF-0.15
GA-0.24
PPG-1.00
PPG0.34
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate26.5%
History Matches-29
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Std0.93
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-2.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches-29
Result entropy-0.39
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score38.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.07
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate62.5%
Lead Points Retention0.54
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO62.86
Current Opponent ELO-62.86
Current ELO Difference125.7
Expected score0.18
History Matches-29
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance2.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Balatonalmádi

L
Zalaegerszegi TE II6–2Balatonalmádi1 Nov · away
Pick: Zalaegerszegi TE II 55% · hit
L
Balatonalmádi0–3Komárom25 Oct · home
Pick: Komárom 68% · hit
W
1908 SZAC0–1Balatonalmádi18 Oct · away
Pick: 1908 SZAC 49% · missed
L
Balatonalmádi0–4Tatabánya30 Aug · home
Pick: Tatabánya 71% · hit
L
Bicskei4–2Balatonalmádi26 Aug · away
Pick: Bicskei 67% · hit

Pápai Perutz

L
SC Sopron3–1Pápai Perutz24 Oct · away
Pick: SC Sopron 63% · hit
L
Pápai Perutz0–5Puskás II29 Aug · home
Pick: Pápai Perutz 44% · missed
W
Pápai Perutz1–0Zalaegerszegi TE II26 Aug · home
Pick: Pápai Perutz 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Balatonalmádi and Pápai Perutz meet in NB III - Northwest on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Balatonalmádi win 32.0%, draw 16.9%, Pápai Perutz win 51.1%. The pick is Pápai Perutz win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.3%. Both teams to score: 60.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.