ScoreProb
Premier League Russia Round 14 2026

Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Baltika Home · Elo 1,574
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Makhachkala Away · Elo 1,546
Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Baltika win
Baltika winPick
39.8%
Draw
27.3%
Dinamo Makhachkala win
32.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.7%
Under 2.557.3%

How much we know

Baltika history70 matches
Dinamo Makhachkala history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Baltika are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Baltika are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,574 against 1,546. On rating alone Baltika would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Baltika score more

    1.39 goals a game over 70 matches for Baltika, against 1.16 over 81 for Dinamo Makhachkala.

  • Baltika concede fewer

    Baltika concede 0.71 a game, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Baltika matches, against 41% for Dinamo Makhachkala. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1573.9
ELO
1545.6
70
ELO · Matches
81
1573.9
Current Team ELO
1545.6
1545.6
Current Opponent ELO
1573.9
28.24
Current ELO Difference
-28.24
0.54
Expected score
0.46
70
History Matches
81
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
54.39
Overperformance
52.47
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
81
1.61
PPG
1.31
41.4%
Win rate
35.8%
37.1%
Draw rate
23.5%
21.4%
Loss rate
40.7%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
32.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
15.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
40
1.59
PPG
1.03
40.5%
Win rate
25.0%
37.8%
Draw rate
27.5%
21.6%
Loss rate
47.5%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.5%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
37
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.16
71.4%
Scoring rate
69.1%
37.1%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.98
70.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
37.8%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
70
History Matches
81
1.39
Goals Mean
1.16
1.37
Goals Std
1.11
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.1%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.4%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.98
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.71
Goals against per game
1.12
51.4%
Conceding rate
72.8%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.33
51.4%
Conceding rate
82.5%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
81
0.71
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.78
Conceded Std
0.97
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.2%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.9%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
81
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.68
3.24
Stability score
2.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
80
24
Lead Matches
24
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.75
12
Trailing Matches
27
41.7%
Non-loss rate
25.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.01
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
16
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.56
34
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.07
51.80
Portability Score
54.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO28.24
PPG0.31
GF0.23
GA-0.41
PPG-0.40
PPG0.57
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate31.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score0.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-2.57
Rest days-1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match0.01
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO28.24
Current Opponent ELO-28.24
Current ELO Difference56.49
Expected score0.08
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Baltika

W
Baltika2–1Akron1 Nov · home
Pick: Baltika 56% · hit
L
Baltika2–3Zenit29 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit 45% · hit
D
FC Krasnodar1–1Baltika24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Krasnodar 57% · missed
W
Krylia Sovetov0–2Baltika14 Oct · away
Pick: Krylia Sovetov 52% · missed
W
Rodina Moskva0–3Baltika30 Aug · away
Pick: Baltika 42% · hit

Dinamo Makhachkala

L
Dinamo Makhachkala0–3FC Rostov1 Nov · home
Pick: Dinamo Makhachkala 53% · missed
L
Krylia Sovetov2–0Dinamo Makhachkala29 Oct · away
Pick: Krylia Sovetov 44% · hit
L
Zenit2–0Dinamo Makhachkala25 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit 59% · hit
D
Dinamo Makhachkala1–1Akron17 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Makhachkala 62% · missed
L
Dinamo Makhachkala1–2Zenit14 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit 51% · hit

About this match

Baltika and Dinamo Makhachkala meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Baltika win 39.8%, draw 27.3%, Dinamo Makhachkala win 32.9%. The pick is Baltika win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.7%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.