ScoreProb
Premier League Russia Round 14 2026

Spartak Moscow vs Akron

Spartak Moscow Home · Elo 1,664
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Akron Away · Elo 1,453
Lukoil Arena, Moscow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Moscow win
Spartak Moscow winPick
74.0%
Draw
16.0%
Akron win
10.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

Spartak Moscow history80 matches
Akron history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Spartak Moscow are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spartak Moscow are rated 211 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,664 against 1,453. On rating alone Spartak Moscow would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Spartak Moscow score more

    1.80 goals a game over 80 matches for Spartak Moscow, against 1.22 over 73 for Akron.

  • Spartak Moscow concede fewer

    Spartak Moscow concede 1.10 a game, Akron 1.73.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Spartak Moscow matches, against 55% for Akron. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spartak Moscow
Akron
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1664.0
ELO
1453.2
80
ELO · Matches
73
1664.0
Current Team ELO
1453.2
1453.2
Current Opponent ELO
1664.0
210.8
Current ELO Difference
-210.8
0.77
Expected score
0.23
80
History Matches
73
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.02
58.94
Overperformance
48.58
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
0.90
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.61
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
73
1.99
PPG
1.05
60.0%
Win rate
28.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
19.2%
21.3%
Loss rate
52.1%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
32
2.27
PPG
1.19
71.1%
Win rate
34.4%
13.3%
Draw rate
15.6%
15.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
45
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.22
87.5%
Scoring rate
78.1%
61.3%
BTTS rate
57.5%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.28
95.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
62.2%
BTTS rate
43.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
80
History Matches
73
1.80
Goals Mean
1.22
1.20
Goals Std
1.00
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.1%
56.3%
Scored 2+ rate
30.1%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.10
Goals against per game
1.73
67.5%
Conceding rate
78.1%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.66
64.4%
Conceding rate
65.6%
0.80
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
80
History Matches
73
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.02
Conceded Std
1.34
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.1%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.1%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
4.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
4.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
73
0.86
Result entropy
0.92
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.76
13.57
Stability score
7.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
69
33
Lead Matches
16
84.8%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.71
15
Trailing Matches
29
33.3%
Non-loss rate
17.2%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.84
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.55
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
48
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
20
Long Rest History Matches
26
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
0.40
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.80
9
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.33
54.63
Portability Score
52.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO210.8
PPG0.93
GF0.58
GA-0.63
PPG2.00
PPG1.08
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate9.4%
Scored 2+ rate26.1%
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.91
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score5.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate22.3%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate16.1%
Trailing Win Rate16.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score2.29
Rest days-0.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.15
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.98
Current Team ELO210.8
Current Opponent ELO-210.8
Current ELO Difference421.7
Expected score0.54
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance10.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spartak Moscow

W
Lokomotiv0–4Spartak Moscow1 Nov · away
Pick: Spartak Moscow 55% · hit
W
Spartak Moscow1–0Rubin28 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Moscow 66% · hit
L
CSKA Moscow2–0Spartak Moscow25 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Moscow 38% · missed
W
Rodina Moskva2–4Spartak Moscow15 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Moscow 46% · hit
D
Spartak Moscow1–1FC Orenburg30 Aug · home
Pick: Spartak Moscow 69% · missed

Akron

L
Baltika2–1Akron1 Nov · away
Pick: Baltika 56% · hit
L
FC Rostov6–1Akron28 Oct · away
Pick: FC Rostov 55% · hit
W
Akron3–1Dynamo24 Oct · home
Pick: Dynamo 53% · missed
D
Dinamo Makhachkala1–1Akron17 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Makhachkala 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Spartak Moscow and Akron meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:15 UTC. The match is played at Lukoil Arena, Moscow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Spartak Moscow win 74.0%, draw 16.0%, Akron win 10.0%. The pick is Spartak Moscow win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.