ScoreProb
Premier League Russia Round 14 2026

Zenit vs FC Rostov

Zenit Home · Elo 1,725
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Rostov Away · Elo 1,513
Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zenit win
Zenit winPick
67.2%
Draw
21.8%
FC Rostov win
11.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%

How much we know

Zenit history85 matches
FC Rostov history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Zenit are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zenit are rated 212 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,725 against 1,513. On rating alone Zenit would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Zenit score far more

    1.94 goals a game over 85 matches for Zenit, against 1.09 over 74 for FC Rostov.

  • Zenit concede fewer

    Zenit concede 0.71 a game, FC Rostov 1.26.

  • Zenit games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Zenit matches, against 38% for FC Rostov. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zenit
FC Rostov
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1724.5
ELO
1513.0
85
ELO · Matches
74
1724.5
Current Team ELO
1513.0
1513.0
Current Opponent ELO
1724.5
211.5
Current ELO Difference
-211.5
0.77
Expected score
0.23
85
History Matches
74
0.14
Residual Mean
0.01
61.59
Overperformance
50.47
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.70
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
74
2.26
PPG
1.15
68.2%
Win rate
29.7%
21.2%
Draw rate
25.7%
10.6%
Loss rate
44.6%
75.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
24.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
50
Matches
39
2.46
PPG
1.31
76.0%
Win rate
35.9%
18.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
6.0%
Loss rate
41.0%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
50
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.94
Goals for per game
1.09
89.4%
Scoring rate
66.2%
43.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.33
96.0%
Scoring rate
74.4%
48.0%
BTTS rate
59.0%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
85
History Matches
74
1.94
Goals Mean
1.09
1.40
Goals Std
1.09
89.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
55.3%
Scored 2+ rate
25.7%
25.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.71
Goals against per game
1.26
48.2%
Conceding rate
78.4%
0.66
Goals against per game
1.38
48.0%
Conceding rate
79.5%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
85
History Matches
74
0.71
Conceded Mean
1.26
0.87
Conceded Std
1.07
17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.4%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
0.66
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
51.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
4.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
51.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
4.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
51.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
74
0.75
Result entropy
0.97
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.50
24.70
Stability score
2.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
73
43
Lead Matches
20
90.7%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.75
14
Trailing Matches
18
57.1%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
43
2.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
9
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.40
70.49
Portability Score
53.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO211.5
PPG1.11
GF0.85
GA-0.55
PPG0.80
PPG1.15
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate30.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate31.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.85
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate23.2%
Scored 2+ rate29.6%
Scored 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate30.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.22
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score22.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches23
Lead Win Rate25.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate29.4%
Trailing Win Rate23.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score16.67
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.95
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.43
Current Team ELO211.5
Current Opponent ELO-211.5
Current ELO Difference423.0
Expected score0.54
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance11.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zenit

W
Krylia Sovetov0–3Zenit2 Nov · away
Pick: Zenit 68% · hit
W
Baltika2–3Zenit29 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit 45% · hit
W
Zenit2–0Dinamo Makhachkala25 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit 59% · hit
W
Zenit3–2Akhmat18 Oct · home
Pick: Zenit 67% · hit
W
Dinamo Makhachkala1–2Zenit14 Oct · away
Pick: Zenit 51% · hit

FC Rostov

W
Dinamo Makhachkala0–3FC Rostov1 Nov · away
Pick: Dinamo Makhachkala 53% · missed
W
FC Rostov6–1Akron28 Oct · home
Pick: FC Rostov 55% · hit
W
FC Rostov2–0Lokomotiv25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Rostov 38% · hit
L
CSKA Moscow4–0FC Rostov14 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Moscow 44% · hit
W
FC Rostov2–0CSKA Moscow1 Sep · home
Pick: FC Rostov 46% · hit

About this match

Zenit and FC Rostov meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Zenit win 67.2%, draw 21.8%, FC Rostov win 11.0%. The pick is Zenit win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.1%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.