ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Bari U19 vs Monopoli U19

Bari U19 Home · Elo 1,465
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Monopoli U19 Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Monopoli U19 win
Bari U19 win
36.4%
Draw
25.3%
Monopoli U19 winPick
38.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Bari U19 history45 matches
Monopoli U19 history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Monopoli U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,465 against 1,458. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 45 matches for Bari U19, against 1.23 over 48 for Monopoli U19.

  • Bari U19 concede fewer

    Bari U19 concede 1.36 a game, Monopoli U19 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Bari U19 matches, against 56% for Monopoli U19. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bari U19
Monopoli U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.6
ELO
1457.8
45
ELO · Matches
48
1464.6
Current Team ELO
1457.8
1457.8
Current Opponent ELO
1464.6
6.89
Current ELO Difference
-6.89
0.51
Expected score
0.49
45
History Matches
48
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
47.43
Overperformance
46.90
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
48
1.24
PPG
1.23
31.1%
Win rate
33.3%
31.1%
Draw rate
22.9%
37.8%
Loss rate
43.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.52
PPG
1.21
39.1%
Win rate
33.3%
34.8%
Draw rate
20.8%
26.1%
Loss rate
45.8%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.23
71.1%
Scoring rate
70.8%
57.8%
BTTS rate
52.1%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.50
65.2%
Scoring rate
70.8%
52.2%
BTTS rate
54.2%
45
History Matches
48
1.29
Goals Mean
1.23
1.11
Goals Std
1.08
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
35.4%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.54
75.6%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.79
69.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
45
History Matches
48
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.06
Conceded Std
1.43
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
48
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.86
0.40
Stability score
3.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
48
10
Lead Matches
6
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.89
12
Trailing Matches
12
16.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
77.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.26
Portability PPG Range
0.14
79.25
Portability Score
87.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO6.89
PPG0.02
GF0.06
GA-0.19
PPG0.31
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate4.6%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-2.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.10
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-8.35
Rest days104.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO6.89
Current Opponent ELO-6.89
Current ELO Difference13.79
Expected score0.02
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bari U19

L
Bari U190–1Pescara U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Pescara U19 44% · hit
D
Bari U191–1Napoli U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Bari U19 47% · missed
W
Bari U191–0Padova U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Bari U19 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Monopoli U19

D
Monopoli U190–0Napoli U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Monopoli U19 46% · missed
W
Ascoli U190–2Monopoli U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Ascoli U19 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bari U19 and Monopoli U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bari U19 win 36.4%, draw 25.3%, Monopoli U19 win 38.4%. The pick is Monopoli U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.