ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 16 2026

Barycz Sułów vs Polonia Nysa

Barycz Sułów Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Polonia Nysa Away · Elo 1,442
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barycz Sułów win
Barycz Sułów winPick
59.0%
Draw
20.4%
Polonia Nysa win
20.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.5%
No38.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Barycz Sułów history12 matches
Polonia Nysa history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Barycz Sułów are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Barycz Sułów are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,442. On rating alone Barycz Sułów would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Barycz Sułów score more

    1.92 goals a game over 12 matches for Barycz Sułów, against 1.36 over 42 for Polonia Nysa.

  • Barycz Sułów concede fewer

    Barycz Sułów concede 1.42 a game, Polonia Nysa 1.86.

  • Barycz Sułów games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Barycz Sułów matches, against 62% for Polonia Nysa. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barycz Sułów
Polonia Nysa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.5
ELO
1441.8
12
ELO · Matches
42
1538.5
Current Team ELO
1441.8
1441.8
Current Opponent ELO
1538.5
96.72
Current ELO Difference
-96.72
0.64
Expected score
0.36
12
History Matches
42
0.19
Residual Mean
-0.08
57.15
Overperformance
44.78
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
42
1.92
PPG
1.00
58.3%
Win rate
23.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
47.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
23
1.75
PPG
0.91
50.0%
Win rate
21.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
52.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
8
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.36
91.7%
Scoring rate
73.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
64.3%
2.13
Goals for per game
1.22
100.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
75.0%
BTTS rate
65.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
12
History Matches
42
1.92
Goals Mean
1.36
1.11
Goals Std
1.19
91.7%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.86
75.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.04
75.0%
Conceding rate
95.7%
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
12
History Matches
42
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.11
Conceded Std
1.46
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
42
0.87
Result entropy
0.96
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.87
12.65
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
41
3
Lead Matches
10
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.70
3
Trailing Matches
21
0.0%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.22
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
6
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
4
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.28
75.00
Portability Score
79.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO96.72
PPG0.92
GF0.56
GA-0.44
PPG1.00
PPG0.84
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-30
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-30
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate17.9%
Scored 2+ rate26.2%
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.91
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches-30
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches-30
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score8.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate40.0%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-4.92
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.71
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match1.44
Current Team ELO96.72
Current Opponent ELO-96.72
Current ELO Difference193.4
Expected score0.27
History Matches-30
Residual Mean0.27
Overperformance12.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barycz Sułów

L
Sparta Katowice3–1Barycz Sułów31 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Katowice 53% · hit
L
Barycz Sułów1–2Ślęza Wrocław24 Oct · home
Pick: Barycz Sułów 55% · missed
L
Goczałkowice Zdrój3–1Barycz Sułów17 Oct · away
Pick: Barycz Sułów 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Polonia Nysa

D
Polonia Nysa0–0Carina Gubin31 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Nysa 43% · missed
L
ROW Rybnik3–0Polonia Nysa24 Oct · away
Pick: ROW Rybnik 56% · hit
D
Polonia Nysa2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra16 Oct · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 57% · missed
L
Polonia Nysa1–3Ślęza Wrocław29 Aug · home
Pick: Polonia Nysa 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barycz Sułów and Polonia Nysa meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Barycz Sułów win 59.0%, draw 20.4%, Polonia Nysa win 20.6%. The pick is Barycz Sułów win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 61.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.