ScoreProb
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 15 2026

Bavois vs Paradiso

Bavois Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Paradiso Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bavois win
Bavois winPick
50.8%
Draw
24.6%
Paradiso win
24.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Bavois history63 matches
Paradiso history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bavois are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bavois are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,448. On rating alone Bavois would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Bavois score more

    1.60 goals a game over 63 matches for Bavois, against 1.36 over 59 for Paradiso.

  • Bavois concede fewer

    Bavois concede 1.41 a game, Paradiso 1.69.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Bavois matches, against 56% for Paradiso. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bavois
Paradiso
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.1
ELO
1447.5
63
ELO · Matches
59
1519.1
Current Team ELO
1447.5
1447.5
Current Opponent ELO
1519.1
71.57
Current ELO Difference
-71.57
0.60
Expected score
0.40
63
History Matches
59
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.78
Overperformance
46.63
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
2.06
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.07
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
59
1.52
PPG
1.17
42.9%
Win rate
28.8%
23.8%
Draw rate
30.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
30
1.90
PPG
1.00
53.3%
Win rate
23.3%
30.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
46.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
30
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.36
77.8%
Scoring rate
72.9%
58.7%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
76.7%
Scoring rate
63.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.60
Goals Mean
1.36
1.43
Goals Std
1.27
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.69
69.8%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.87
60.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.43
Conceded Std
1.65
38.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.5%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.7%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
59
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
2.16
Goal Difference Std
2.01
2.51
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
59
20
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.80
21
Trailing Matches
18
33.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
19.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
36
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.50
70.37
Portability Score
67.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO71.57
PPG0.35
GF0.25
GA-0.28
PPG0.25
PPG0.90
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate4.9%
Scored 2+ rate5.5%
Scored 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.16
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score1.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate1.7%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate13.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score3.06
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO71.57
Current Opponent ELO-71.57
Current ELO Difference143.1
Expected score0.20
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bavois

L
Cham2–1Bavois31 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 43% · hit
L
Basel II3–1Bavois17 Oct · away
Pick: Bavois 41% · missed
L
Lugano II3–2Bavois29 Aug · away
Pick: Bavois 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Paradiso

D
Paradiso1–1Biel-Bienne31 Oct · home
Pick: Biel-Bienne 58% · missed
W
Luzern II1–2Paradiso24 Oct · away
Pick: Luzern II 39% · missed
D
Paradiso2–2Young Boys II17 Oct · home
Pick: Paradiso 49% · missed
W
Grand-Saconnex2–5Paradiso29 Aug · away
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bavois and Paradiso meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bavois win 50.8%, draw 24.6%, Paradiso win 24.6%. The pick is Bavois win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.