Bayreuth vs Vilzing
Match result probability Model pick: Bayreuth win
Bayreuth winPick
45.4%
Draw
25.9%
Vilzing win
28.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.4%
No40.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%
How much we know
Bayreuth history69 matches
Vilzing history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bayreuth
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Bayreuth are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Vilzing are rated 50 Elo points higher
Elo 1,581 against 1,530. On rating alone Vilzing would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Vilzing score more
1.86 goals a game over 69 matches for Bayreuth, against 2.06 over 64 for Vilzing.
-
Vilzing concede fewer
Bayreuth concede 1.43 a game, Vilzing 1.17.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Bayreuth matches, against 56% for Vilzing. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vilzing@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1530.2
ELO
1580.6
69
ELO · Matches
64
1530.2
Current Team ELO
1580.6
1580.6
Current Opponent ELO
1530.2
-50.41
Current ELO Difference
50.41
0.43
Expected score
0.57
69
History Matches
64
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
52.22
Overperformance
54.94
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.90
2.70
Goals for per game
2.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
69
Matches
64
1.48
PPG
1.91
40.6%
Win rate
59.4%
26.1%
Draw rate
12.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
28.1%
85.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
58.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
30
1.65
PPG
1.77
48.6%
Win rate
53.3%
18.9%
Draw rate
16.7%
32.4%
Loss rate
30.0%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
37
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.86
Goals for per game
2.06
81.2%
Scoring rate
79.7%
53.6%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.83
83.8%
Scoring rate
76.7%
45.9%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
64
1.86
Goals Mean
2.06
1.77
Goals Std
1.94
81.2%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
23.2%
Scored 3+ rate
35.9%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.17
68.1%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.50
54.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
69
History Matches
64
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.36
Conceded Std
1.08
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
26.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.9%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
69
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.84
2.45
Goal Difference Std
2.22
1.45
Stability score
15.69
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
68
Eligible Matches
59
27
Lead Matches
26
70.4%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.92
20
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.50
44.51
Portability Score
49.16
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
69
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-50.41
PPG-0.43
GF-0.21
GA0.26
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.12
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate25.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate15.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches5
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-14.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score-4.64
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-50.41
Current Opponent ELO50.41
Current ELO Difference-100.8
Expected score-0.14
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bayreuth
W
Bayreuth3–1Nürnberg II31 Oct · home
Pick: Bayreuth 50% · hit W
Bayreuth3–1Eichstätt17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayreuth 58% · hit L
TSV 1860 München2–1Bayreuth13 Oct · away
Pick: TSV 1860 München 51% · hit L
Buchbach2–1Bayreuth29 Aug · away
Pick: Buchbach 53% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Vilzing
L
Aubstadt2–0Vilzing30 Oct · away
Pick: Aubstadt 46% · hit D
Vilzing0–0SpVgg Unterhaching17 Oct · home
Pick: Vilzing 51% · missed W
Eichstätt2–3Vilzing13 Oct · away
Pick: Vilzing 44% · hit W
Wacker Burghausen4–5Vilzing29 Aug · away
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Bayreuth and Vilzing meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Bayreuth win 45.4%, draw 25.9%, Vilzing win 28.7%. The pick is Bayreuth win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.