Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II
Match result probability Model pick: Buchbach win
Buchbach winPick
56.0%
Draw
18.3%
Greuther Fürth II win
25.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.8%
No37.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%
How much we know
Buchbach history66 matches
Greuther Fürth II history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Buchbach
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.0%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Buchbach are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Buchbach are rated 42 Elo points higher
Elo 1,554 against 1,512. On rating alone Buchbach would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.89 goals a game over 66 matches for Buchbach, against 1.71 over 65 for Greuther Fürth II.
-
Greuther Fürth II concede fewer
Buchbach concede 1.82 a game, Greuther Fürth II 1.51.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
65% of Buchbach matches, against 58% for Greuther Fürth II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Greuther Fürth II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1553.9
ELO
1511.7
66
ELO · Matches
65
1553.9
Current Team ELO
1511.7
1511.7
Current Opponent ELO
1553.9
42.21
Current ELO Difference
-42.21
0.56
Expected score
0.44
66
History Matches
65
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
53.50
Overperformance
50.19
0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.67
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals 90
66
Matches
65
1.61
PPG
1.35
45.5%
Win rate
36.9%
24.2%
Draw rate
24.6%
30.3%
Loss rate
38.5%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.1%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
35
1.63
PPG
1.17
45.7%
Win rate
31.4%
25.7%
Draw rate
22.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
45.7%
88.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.89
Goals for per game
1.71
83.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
65.2%
BTTS rate
67.7%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.60
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
68.6%
BTTS rate
62.9%
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
66
History Matches
65
1.89
Goals Mean
1.71
1.51
Goals Std
1.37
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
48.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.7%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
27.7%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.82
Goals against per game
1.51
77.3%
Conceding rate
83.1%
1.83
Goals against per game
1.69
80.0%
Conceding rate
82.9%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
66
History Matches
65
1.82
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.71
Conceded Std
1.22
43.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
30.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
1.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
66
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
2.39
Goal Difference Std
1.87
3.18
Stability score
1.65
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
63
Eligible Matches
62
24
Lead Matches
19
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.77
16
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.06
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
38
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.35
Portability PPG Range
1.57
49.67
Portability Score
43.51
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
66
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO42.21
PPG0.25
GF0.19
GA0.31
PPG1.60
PPG0.46
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.50
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate3.9%
Conceded 3+ rate14.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score1.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score6.15
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.72
Current Team ELO42.21
Current Opponent ELO-42.21
Current ELO Difference84.41
Expected score0.12
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Buchbach
L
TSV 1860 München4–3Buchbach30 Oct · away
Pick: TSV 1860 München 40% · hit D
Buchbach3–3Wacker Burghausen23 Oct · home
Pick: Buchbach 57% · missed L
Illertissen4–0Buchbach16 Oct · away
Pick: Illertissen 53% · hit L
Buchbach1–4Augsburg II13 Oct · home
Pick: Buchbach 56% · missed W
Buchbach2–1Bayreuth29 Aug · home
Pick: Buchbach 53% · hit Greuther Fürth II
L
Illertissen4–0Greuther Fürth II30 Oct · away
Pick: Illertissen 67% · hit L
Greuther Fürth II0–2Schwaben Augsburg24 Oct · home
Pick: Greuther Fürth II 47% · missed D
Ansbach1–1Greuther Fürth II17 Oct · away
Pick: Greuther Fürth II 46% · missed L
Greuther Fürth II0–1Memmingen13 Oct · home
Pick: Memmingen 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Buchbach and Greuther Fürth II meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Buchbach win 56.0%, draw 18.3%, Greuther Fürth II win 25.7%. The pick is Buchbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 62.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.