ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 16 2026

Be1 NFA vs Atmosfera

Be1 NFA Home · Elo 1,504
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atmosfera Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Be1 NFA win
Be1 NFA winPick
48.4%
Draw
22.9%
Atmosfera win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Be1 NFA history56 matches
Atmosfera history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Be1 NFA are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,504 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Atmosfera score more

    1.25 goals a game over 56 matches for Be1 NFA, against 1.70 over 54 for Atmosfera.

  • Atmosfera concede fewer

    Be1 NFA concede 1.54 a game, Atmosfera 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Be1 NFA matches, against 52% for Atmosfera. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Be1 NFA
Atmosfera
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.9
ELO
1500.5
56
ELO · Matches
54
1503.9
Current Team ELO
1500.5
1500.5
Current Opponent ELO
1503.9
3.38
Current ELO Difference
-3.38
0.50
Expected score
0.50
56
History Matches
54
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
49.46
Overperformance
50.48
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
54
1.21
PPG
1.48
35.7%
Win rate
42.6%
14.3%
Draw rate
20.4%
50.0%
Loss rate
37.0%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
58.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
33.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.33
PPG
1.72
37.5%
Win rate
52.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
16.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
32.0%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.70
62.5%
Scoring rate
74.1%
44.6%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.76
70.8%
Scoring rate
72.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
56
History Matches
54
1.25
Goals Mean
1.70
1.29
Goals Std
1.70
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
16.1%
Scored 3+ rate
24.1%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.20
76.8%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.54
Goals against per game
0.92
79.2%
Conceding rate
64.0%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.25
70.0%
Conceding rate
85.0%
56
History Matches
54
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.30
Conceded Std
1.01
41.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
54
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.26
9.68
Stability score
3.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
54
12
Lead Matches
20
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.88
16
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
74.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
28
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.90
PPG
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
35.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
30.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.90
Current Competition PPG
1.30
0.45
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.15
1.90
Portability PPG Range
0.30
39.16
Portability Score
76.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO3.38
PPG-0.27
GF-0.45
GA0.33
PPG0.60
PPG-0.39
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate11.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score5.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.63
Portability PPG Range1.60
Portability Score-37.76
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO3.38
Current Opponent ELO-3.38
Current ELO Difference6.77
Expected score0.01
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Be1 NFA

D
Be1 NFA1–1Babrungas30 Oct · home
Pick: Babrungas 48% · missed
W
Tauras1–2Be1 NFA24 Oct · away
Pick: Tauras 54% · missed
W
Be1 NFA2–0Neptūną Klaipėda16 Oct · home
Pick: Be1 NFA 45% · hit
W
Ekranas0–5Be1 NFA29 Aug · away
Pick: Be1 NFA 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atmosfera

L
Minija3–1Atmosfera31 Oct · away
Pick: Minija 67% · hit
W
Atmosfera3–0Jonava24 Oct · home
Pick: Atmosfera 48% · hit
L
Neptūną Klaipėda3–1Atmosfera29 Aug · away
Pick: Neptūną Klaipėda 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Be1 NFA and Atmosfera meet in 1 Lyga on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Be1 NFA win 48.4%, draw 22.9%, Atmosfera win 28.7%. The pick is Be1 NFA win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.