ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 30 2026

Jonava vs Hegelmann II

Jonava Home · Elo 1,455
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hegelmann II Away · Elo 1,415
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jonava win
Jonava winPick
56.0%
Draw
25.0%
Hegelmann II win
19.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Jonava history57 matches
Hegelmann II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Jonava are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jonava are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,455 against 1,415. On rating alone Jonava would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Hegelmann II score more

    1.02 goals a game over 57 matches for Jonava, against 1.18 over 49 for Hegelmann II.

  • Jonava concede fewer

    Jonava concede 1.16 a game, Hegelmann II 1.92.

  • Hegelmann II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Jonava matches, against 59% for Hegelmann II. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jonava
Hegelmann II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.1
ELO
1415.5
57
ELO · Matches
49
1455.1
Current Team ELO
1415.5
1415.5
Current Opponent ELO
1455.1
39.61
Current ELO Difference
-39.61
0.56
Expected score
0.44
57
History Matches
49
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.08
46.94
Overperformance
44.09
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
49
1.26
PPG
1.02
33.3%
Win rate
28.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
16.3%
40.4%
Loss rate
55.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
40.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
24
1.07
PPG
0.88
25.0%
Win rate
20.8%
32.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
54.2%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
28
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.18
59.6%
Scoring rate
67.3%
40.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.17
60.7%
Scoring rate
70.8%
46.4%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.14
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
57
History Matches
49
1.02
Goals Mean
1.18
1.07
Goals Std
1.14
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
29.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.92
70.2%
Conceding rate
87.8%
1.36
Goals against per game
2.00
78.6%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.29
Goals against per game
2.24
81.0%
Conceding rate
90.5%
57
History Matches
49
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.92
1.01
Conceded Std
1.41
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.1%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.89
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.97
1.35
Stability score
10.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
49
14
Lead Matches
5
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
25
15.8%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.10
PPG
0.90
28.6%
Win rate
28.6%
23.8%
Draw rate
4.8%
47.6%
Loss rate
66.7%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.10
Current Competition PPG
0.90
-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.10
5
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.65
Portability PPG Range
0.20
65.15
Portability Score
83.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.61
PPG0.24
GF-0.17
GA-0.76
PPG0.19
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate10.1%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.76
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches8
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-9.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.84
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.95
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.45
Portability Score-18.02
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO39.61
Current Opponent ELO-39.61
Current ELO Difference79.22
Expected score0.11
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jonava

D
Jonava2–2Žalgiris II31 Oct · home
Pick: Jonava 41% · missed
L
Atmosfera3–0Jonava24 Oct · away
Pick: Atmosfera 48% · hit
W
Jonava3–0BFA16 Oct · home
Pick: Jonava 42% · hit
W
Transinvest 21–2Jonava29 Aug · away
Pick: Jonava 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hegelmann II

D
Hegelmann II1–1BFA1 Nov · home
Pick: BFA 54% · missed
L
Babrungas4–0Hegelmann II25 Oct · away
Pick: Babrungas 82% · hit
D
Hegelmann II4–4Tauras16 Oct · home
Pick: Tauras 64% · missed
L
Kauno Žalgiris II3–0Hegelmann II29 Aug · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris II 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jonava and Hegelmann II meet in 1 Lyga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Jonava win 56.0%, draw 25.0%, Hegelmann II win 19.0%. The pick is Jonava win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.