ScoreProb
NPFL Nigeria Round 12 2027

Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes

Bendel Insurance Home · Elo 1,534
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Niger Tornadoes Away · Elo 1,480
Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium, Benin City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bendel Insurance win
Bendel Insurance winPick
40.3%
Draw
37.2%
Niger Tornadoes win
22.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.2%
Under 2.559.8%

How much we know

Bendel Insurance history56 matches
Niger Tornadoes history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bendel Insurance are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bendel Insurance are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,480. On rating alone Bendel Insurance would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Bendel Insurance score more

    1.14 goals a game over 56 matches for Bendel Insurance, against 1.00 over 55 for Niger Tornadoes.

  • Defences are close

    Bendel Insurance concede 0.96 a game, Niger Tornadoes 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Bendel Insurance matches, against 35% for Niger Tornadoes. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bendel Insurance
Niger Tornadoes
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.0
ELO
1480.1
56
ELO · Matches
55
1534.0
Current Team ELO
1480.1
1480.1
Current Opponent ELO
1534.0
53.95
Current ELO Difference
-53.95
0.58
Expected score
0.42
56
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.19
Overperformance
48.81
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
1.70
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
55
1.48
PPG
1.31
37.5%
Win rate
36.4%
35.7%
Draw rate
21.8%
26.8%
Loss rate
41.8%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
34.5%
19.6%
Over 3.5 rate
10.9%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
2.11
PPG
0.44
57.1%
Win rate
11.1%
39.3%
Draw rate
11.1%
3.6%
Loss rate
77.8%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
3.7%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.14
Goals for per game
1.00
69.6%
Scoring rate
60.0%
44.6%
BTTS rate
32.7%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.44
85.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
46.4%
BTTS rate
25.9%
56
History Matches
55
1.14
Goals Mean
1.00
1.03
Goals Std
1.04
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.1%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.3%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
1.05
60.7%
Conceding rate
63.6%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.52
50.0%
Conceding rate
85.2%
56
History Matches
55
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.05
0.98
Conceded Std
0.98
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.28
Goal Difference Std
1.58
0.93
Stability score
3.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
55
16
Lead Matches
14
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
8
Trailing Matches
16
37.5%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
155.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.15
84.84
Portability Score
87.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO53.95
PPG0.17
GF0.14
GA-0.09
PPG1.66
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate35.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.52
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate9.6%
Scored 2+ rate1.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-2.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-2.22
Rest days-13.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.33
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO53.95
Current Opponent ELO-53.95
Current ELO Difference107.9
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bendel Insurance

W
Kwara United1–2Bendel Insurance1 Nov · away
Pick: Kwara United 41% · missed
W
Bendel Insurance2–1Rivers United25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
W
Bendel Insurance4–1Barau FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Bendel Insurance 50% · hit
W
Bendel Insurance2–1Warri Wolves30 Aug · home
Pick: Bendel Insurance 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Niger Tornadoes

D
Niger Tornadoes0–0Barau FC30 Oct · home
Pick: Niger Tornadoes 49% · missed
W
Abia Warriors0–1Niger Tornadoes25 Oct · away
Pick: Abia Warriors 47% · missed
W
Niger Tornadoes2–1Ikorodu City18 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
W
Niger Tornadoes2–1Enyimba30 Aug · home
Pick: Niger Tornadoes 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bendel Insurance and Niger Tornadoes meet in NPFL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium, Benin City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bendel Insurance win 40.3%, draw 37.2%, Niger Tornadoes win 22.5%. The pick is Bendel Insurance win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.2%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.