ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 10 2026

Beti Onak vs Pamplona

Beti Onak Home · Elo 1,463
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pamplona Away · Elo 1,614
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pamplona win
Beti Onak win
25.3%
Draw
25.9%
Pamplona winPick
48.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Beti Onak history48 matches
Pamplona history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pamplona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pamplona are rated 151 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,463. On rating alone Pamplona would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Pamplona score more

    1.17 goals a game over 48 matches for Beti Onak, against 1.70 over 53 for Pamplona.

  • Pamplona concede fewer

    Beti Onak concede 1.52 a game, Pamplona 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Beti Onak matches, against 49% for Pamplona. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Beti Onak
Pamplona@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.7
ELO
1613.8
48
ELO · Matches
53
1462.7
Current Team ELO
1613.8
1613.8
Current Opponent ELO
1462.7
-151.1
Current ELO Difference
151.1
0.30
Expected score
0.70
48
History Matches
53
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.10
47.37
Overperformance
57.22
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
53
1.13
PPG
1.83
29.2%
Win rate
50.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
30.2%
45.8%
Loss rate
18.9%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
28
1.75
PPG
1.43
45.8%
Win rate
35.7%
37.5%
Draw rate
35.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
28.6%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
24
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.70
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.36
83.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
48
History Matches
53
1.17
Goals Mean
1.70
0.99
Goals Std
1.28
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
50.9%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
0.96
85.4%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.11
70.8%
Conceding rate
71.4%
48
History Matches
53
1.52
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.08
Conceded Std
0.85
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.56
3.19
Stability score
7.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
52
13
Lead Matches
17
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.80
13
Trailing Matches
7
30.8%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.23
21
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.11
Portability PPG Range
0.72
90.16
Portability Score
58.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-151.1
PPG-0.71
GF-0.53
GA0.56
PPG0.32
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate16.4%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate13.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-3.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.61
Portability Score32.16
Rest days42.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.23
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-151.1
Current Opponent ELO151.1
Current ELO Difference-302.2
Expected score-0.41
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Beti Onak

L
Txantrea2–1Beti Onak31 Oct · away
Pick: Beti Onak 36% · missed
L
Beti Onak1–4Izarra24 Oct · home
Pick: Izarra 41% · hit
W
Cortes0–4Beti Onak17 Oct · away
Pick: Cortes 52% · missed
L
Beti Kozkor3–0Beti Onak8 Oct · away
Pick: Beti Kozkor 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pamplona

L
Txantrea5–1Pamplona24 Oct · away
Pick: Pamplona 53% · missed
W
Pamplona1–0Gazte Berriak18 Oct · home
Pick: Pamplona 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Beti Onak and Pamplona meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Beti Onak win 25.3%, draw 25.9%, Pamplona win 48.8%. The pick is Pamplona win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.