ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 10 2026

Valle Egüés vs Avance Ezcabarte

Valle Egüés Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Avance Ezcabarte Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Valle Egüés win
Valle Egüés winPick
58.0%
Draw
22.1%
Avance Ezcabarte win
19.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.1%
Under 2.545.9%

How much we know

Valle Egüés history51 matches
Avance Ezcabarte history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Valle Egüés are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Valle Egüés are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,480. On rating alone Valle Egüés would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 51 matches for Valle Egüés, against 1.41 over 34 for Avance Ezcabarte.

  • Defences are close

    Valle Egüés concede 1.39 a game, Avance Ezcabarte 1.47.

  • Avance Ezcabarte games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Valle Egüés matches, against 62% for Avance Ezcabarte. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Valle Egüés
Avance Ezcabarte@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.3
ELO
1479.5
51
ELO · Matches
34
1505.3
Current Team ELO
1479.5
1479.5
Current Opponent ELO
1505.3
25.75
Current ELO Difference
-25.75
0.54
Expected score
0.46
51
History Matches
34
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.46
Overperformance
48.03
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
34
1.43
PPG
1.32
39.2%
Win rate
35.3%
25.5%
Draw rate
26.5%
35.3%
Loss rate
38.2%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
17
1.77
PPG
0.88
53.8%
Win rate
23.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
17.6%
30.8%
Loss rate
58.8%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
26
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.41
78.4%
Scoring rate
82.4%
60.8%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.62
Goals for per game
0.88
84.6%
Scoring rate
70.6%
65.4%
BTTS rate
58.8%
51
History Matches
34
1.39
Goals Mean
1.41
1.07
Goals Std
1.11
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.4%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
1.47
76.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.59
76.9%
Conceding rate
82.4%
51
History Matches
34
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.21
Conceded Std
1.36
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
34
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.64
1.41
Stability score
1.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
33
11
Lead Matches
8
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.75
11
Trailing Matches
10
18.2%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
84.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
21
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.36
Portability PPG Std
—
0.73
Portability PPG Range
—
57.89
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO25.75
PPG0.11
GF-0.02
GA-0.08
PPG0.89
PPG1.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches17
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches17
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score0.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate6.8%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days97.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.63
Current Team ELO25.75
Current Opponent ELO-25.75
Current ELO Difference51.51
Expected score0.07
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Valle Egüés

D
Gazte Berriak0–0Valle Egüés25 Oct · away
Pick: Gazte Berriak 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Avance Ezcabarte

L
Huarte1–0Avance Ezcabarte23 Oct · away
Pick: Huarte 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Valle Egüés and Avance Ezcabarte meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Valle Egüés win 58.0%, draw 22.1%, Avance Ezcabarte win 19.9%. The pick is Valle Egüés win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.1%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.