ScoreProb
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 15 2026

Biel-Bienne vs Kreuzlingen

Biel-Bienne Home · Elo 1,611
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kreuzlingen Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Biel-Bienne win
Biel-Bienne winPick
71.6%
Draw
14.0%
Kreuzlingen win
14.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%

How much we know

Biel-Bienne history66 matches
Kreuzlingen history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Biel-Bienne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Biel-Bienne are rated 138 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,611 against 1,474. On rating alone Biel-Bienne would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Biel-Bienne score more

    2.06 goals a game over 66 matches for Biel-Bienne, against 1.37 over 59 for Kreuzlingen.

  • Biel-Bienne concede fewer

    Biel-Bienne concede 1.33 a game, Kreuzlingen 1.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Biel-Bienne matches, against 61% for Kreuzlingen. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Biel-Bienne
Kreuzlingen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1611.2
ELO
1473.5
66
ELO · Matches
59
1611.2
Current Team ELO
1473.5
1473.5
Current Opponent ELO
1611.2
137.7
Current ELO Difference
-137.7
0.69
Expected score
0.31
66
History Matches
59
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.03
57.13
Overperformance
48.00
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
2.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
59
1.85
PPG
1.27
54.5%
Win rate
33.9%
21.2%
Draw rate
25.4%
24.2%
Loss rate
40.7%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
31
2.11
PPG
1.16
62.2%
Win rate
32.3%
24.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
13.5%
Loss rate
48.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
51.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
37
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.06
Goals for per game
1.37
83.3%
Scoring rate
74.6%
63.6%
BTTS rate
62.7%
2.22
Goals for per game
1.16
89.2%
Scoring rate
67.7%
64.9%
BTTS rate
51.6%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
66
History Matches
59
2.06
Goals Mean
1.37
1.41
Goals Std
1.16
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
63.6%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.80
74.2%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.94
64.9%
Conceding rate
83.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
59
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.80
1.20
Conceded Std
1.38
37.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.8%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.0%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
59
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.98
8.70
Stability score
1.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
58
19
Lead Matches
15
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.82
16
Trailing Matches
24
50.0%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
31.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
1.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.60
41
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.80
1.67
Portability PPG Range
2.25
47.22
Portability Score
38.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO137.7
PPG0.58
GF0.69
GA-0.46
PPG2.00
PPG0.95
PPG1.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.69
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate8.8%
Scored 2+ rate24.7%
Scored 3+ rate19.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score7.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate21.4%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate20.8%
Trailing Win Rate22.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.25
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score8.85
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO137.7
Current Opponent ELO-137.7
Current ELO Difference275.4
Expected score0.38
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance9.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Biel-Bienne

D
Paradiso1–1Biel-Bienne31 Oct · away
Pick: Biel-Bienne 58% · missed
D
Biel-Bienne2–2Cham25 Oct · home
Pick: Biel-Bienne 63% · missed
D
Bulle1–1Biel-Bienne30 Aug · away
Pick: Biel-Bienne 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kreuzlingen

L
Kreuzlingen2–3Luzern II31 Oct · home
Pick: Kreuzlingen 55% · missed
L
Young Boys II5–2Kreuzlingen25 Oct · away
Pick: Young Boys II 41% · hit
L
Kreuzlingen2–3Bulle21 Oct · home
Pick: Bulle 50% · hit
W
Kreuzlingen1–0Breitenrain29 Aug · home
Pick: Breitenrain 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Biel-Bienne and Kreuzlingen meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Biel-Bienne win 71.6%, draw 14.0%, Kreuzlingen win 14.4%. The pick is Biel-Bienne win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.7%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.