ScoreProb
Primera División Bolivia Round 25 2026

Bolívar vs The Strongest

Bolívar Home · Elo 1,659
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
The Strongest Away · Elo 1,577
Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bolívar win
Bolívar winPick
56.9%
Draw
24.8%
The Strongest win
18.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%

How much we know

Bolívar history89 matches
The Strongest history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bolívar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bolívar are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,659 against 1,577. On rating alone Bolívar would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Bolívar score more

    2.46 goals a game over 89 matches for Bolívar, against 2.06 over 65 for The Strongest.

  • Bolívar concede fewer

    Bolívar concede 1.19 a game, The Strongest 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Bolívar matches, against 69% for The Strongest. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bolívar
The Strongest@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1659.3
ELO
1577.4
89
ELO · Matches
65
1659.3
Current Team ELO
1577.4
1577.4
Current Opponent ELO
1659.3
81.96
Current ELO Difference
-81.96
0.62
Expected score
0.38
89
History Matches
65
0.08
Residual Mean
0.06
56.48
Overperformance
54.49
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
65
2.01
PPG
1.82
61.8%
Win rate
53.8%
15.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
22.5%
Loss rate
26.2%
89.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
69.7%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
48.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
32
2.37
PPG
1.44
75.6%
Win rate
40.6%
9.8%
Draw rate
21.9%
14.6%
Loss rate
37.5%
95.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
82.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
65.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
41
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.46
Goals for per game
2.06
94.4%
Scoring rate
84.6%
67.4%
BTTS rate
67.7%
3.15
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
71.9%
65.9%
BTTS rate
59.4%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.63
87.5%
Scoring rate
81.3%
68.8%
BTTS rate
75.0%
89
History Matches
65
2.46
Goals Mean
2.06
1.65
Goals Std
1.54
94.4%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
65.2%
Scored 2+ rate
63.1%
40.4%
Scored 3+ rate
29.2%
3.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.46
71.9%
Conceding rate
78.5%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.59
65.9%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
89
History Matches
65
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.00
Conceded Std
1.28
33.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.5%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.5%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
65
0.84
Result entropy
0.92
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.95
15.91
Stability score
8.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
65
50
Lead Matches
22
86.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.86
19
Trailing Matches
23
42.1%
Non-loss rate
47.8%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
30.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.09
Rest days
78.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
22
Short Rest History Matches
11
2.32
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
16
2.06
PPG
1.88
62.5%
Win rate
50.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
37.5%
18.8%
Loss rate
12.5%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
16
Current Competition Matches
16
2.06
Current Competition PPG
1.88
1.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.38
11
Competition Season Count
11
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.77
Portability PPG Range
1.13
46.62
Portability Score
54.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO81.96
PPG0.20
GF0.40
GA-0.27
PPG0.19
PPG0.93
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches24
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate9.8%
Scored 2+ rate2.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches24
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches24
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score7.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches24
Lead Matches28
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches24
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count6
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.64
Portability Score-7.74
Rest days-1.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches11
Short Rest Points Per Match0.32
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO81.96
Current Opponent ELO-81.96
Current ELO Difference163.9
Expected score0.23
History Matches24
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bolívar

W
Guabirá1–2Bolívar1 Nov · away
Pick: Bolívar 57% · hit
W
Bolívar2–1Universitario de Vinto27 Oct · home
Pick: Bolívar 75% · hit
L
Real Potosí3–1Bolívar21 Oct · away
Pick: Bolívar 48% · missed
W
Nacional Potosí0–1Bolívar18 Oct · away
Pick: Bolívar 55% · hit
W
Independiente Petrolero0–3Bolívar4 Oct · away
Pick: Bolívar 52% · hit

The Strongest

W
The Strongest4–2Gualberto Villarroel SJ1 Nov · home
Pick: The Strongest 56% · hit
L
Oriente Petrolero2–1The Strongest25 Oct · away
Pick: Oriente Petrolero 39% · hit
W
The Strongest2–1Always Ready18 Oct · home
Pick: Always Ready 47% · missed
L
Bolívar4–2The Strongest30 Aug · away
Pick: Bolívar 56% · hit
W
San Antonio Bulo Bulo0–3The Strongest26 Aug · away
Pick: The Strongest 48% · hit

About this match

Bolívar and The Strongest meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bolívar win 56.9%, draw 24.8%, The Strongest win 18.4%. The pick is Bolívar win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.5%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.