ScoreProb
Primera División Bolivia Round 25 2026

Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí

Nacional Potosí Home · Elo 1,480
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Potosí Away · Elo 1,572
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nacional Potosí win
Nacional Potosí winPick
40.8%
Draw
25.7%
Real Potosí win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Nacional Potosí history67 matches
Real Potosí history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nacional Potosí are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Potosí are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,480. On rating alone Real Potosí would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 67 matches for Nacional Potosí, against 1.59 over 34 for Real Potosí.

  • Real Potosí concede fewer

    Nacional Potosí concede 1.49 a game, Real Potosí 0.79.

  • Nacional Potosí games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Nacional Potosí matches, against 38% for Real Potosí. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nacional Potosí
Real Potosí@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1480.2
ELO
1572.4
67
ELO · Matches
34
1480.2
Current Team ELO
1572.4
1572.4
Current Opponent ELO
1480.2
-92.18
Current ELO Difference
92.18
0.37
Expected score
0.63
67
History Matches
34
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
48.34
Overperformance
56.68
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
34
1.34
PPG
1.79
38.8%
Win rate
50.0%
17.9%
Draw rate
29.4%
43.3%
Loss rate
20.6%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
17
1.77
PPG
1.41
54.8%
Win rate
35.3%
12.9%
Draw rate
35.3%
32.3%
Loss rate
29.4%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
31
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.59
73.1%
Scoring rate
82.4%
52.2%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.87
Goals for per game
1.18
83.9%
Scoring rate
76.5%
48.4%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.47
88.2%
Scoring rate
73.3%
58.8%
BTTS rate
46.7%
67
History Matches
34
1.57
Goals Mean
1.59
1.37
Goals Std
1.29
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
82.4%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
1.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
0.79
77.6%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.12
61.3%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.35
Goals against per game
0.60
70.6%
Conceding rate
46.7%
67
History Matches
34
1.49
Conceded Mean
0.79
1.32
Conceded Std
0.93
43.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
34
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.69
5.53
Stability score
6.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
32
25
Lead Matches
14
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.95
23
Trailing Matches
6
17.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.83
Rest days
77.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
21
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
15
1.24
PPG
1.67
35.3%
Win rate
40.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
46.7%
47.1%
Loss rate
13.3%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
17
Current Competition Matches
15
1.24
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.87
8
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.41
Portability PPG Range
0.43
51.15
Portability Score
73.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-92.18
PPG-0.45
GF-0.02
GA0.70
PPG-0.43
PPG0.36
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches33
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate5.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches33
Conceded Mean0.70
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate19.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches33
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score-0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches35
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate0.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches35
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.98
Portability Score-22.78
Rest days-3.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.20
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Current Team ELO-92.18
Current Opponent ELO92.18
Current ELO Difference-184.4
Expected score-0.26
History Matches33
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nacional Potosí

D
Real Oruro1–1Nacional Potosí31 Oct · away
Pick: Nacional Potosí 43% · missed
W
Nacional Potosí3–0Guabirá26 Oct · home
Pick: Nacional Potosí 47% · hit
L
Oriente Petrolero3–2Nacional Potosí22 Oct · away
Pick: Oriente Petrolero 37% · hit
L
Nacional Potosí0–1Bolívar18 Oct · home
Pick: Bolívar 55% · hit
W
Always Ready2–3Nacional Potosí8 Oct · away
Pick: Always Ready 64% · missed

Real Potosí

D
Real Potosí1–1Independiente Petrolero30 Oct · home
Pick: Real Potosí 62% · missed
L
San Antonio Bulo Bulo2–1Real Potosí24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Potosí 60% · missed
W
Real Potosí3–1Bolívar21 Oct · home
Pick: Bolívar 48% · missed
W
ABB0–1Real Potosí16 Oct · away
Pick: Real Potosí 59% · hit
W
Real Potosí4–2San Antonio Bulo Bulo6 Oct · home
Pick: Real Potosí 61% · hit

About this match

Nacional Potosí and Real Potosí meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nacional Potosí win 40.8%, draw 25.7%, Real Potosí win 33.4%. The pick is Nacional Potosí win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.