ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

Bollullos vs Pozoblanco

Bollullos Home · Elo 1,524
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pozoblanco Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bollullos win
Bollullos winPick
53.9%
Draw
24.6%
Pozoblanco win
21.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.3%
Under 2.553.7%

How much we know

Bollullos history52 matches
Pozoblanco history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bollullos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bollullos are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,483. On rating alone Bollullos would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.15 goals a game over 52 matches for Bollullos, against 1.17 over 48 for Pozoblanco.

  • Bollullos concede fewer

    Bollullos concede 1.02 a game, Pozoblanco 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Bollullos matches, against 48% for Pozoblanco. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bollullos
Pozoblanco
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.0
ELO
1483.0
52
ELO · Matches
48
1524.0
Current Team ELO
1483.0
1483.0
Current Opponent ELO
1524.0
40.99
Current ELO Difference
-40.99
0.56
Expected score
0.44
52
History Matches
48
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.09
Overperformance
48.73
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
48
1.50
PPG
1.29
40.4%
Win rate
31.3%
28.8%
Draw rate
35.4%
30.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.75
PPG
1.04
45.8%
Win rate
25.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
29.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
45.8%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.17
67.3%
Scoring rate
68.8%
44.2%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.79
75.0%
Scoring rate
54.2%
41.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
52
History Matches
48
1.15
Goals Mean
1.17
1.04
Goals Std
1.07
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
34.6%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
11.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.29
65.4%
Conceding rate
68.8%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.42
50.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
52
History Matches
48
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.29
0.93
Conceded Std
1.22
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
48
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.54
1.02
Stability score
0.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
48
17
Lead Matches
16
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.69
11
Trailing Matches
12
9.1%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.9
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
18
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.01
Portability PPG Range
0.25
98.59
Portability Score
79.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO40.99
PPG0.21
GF-0.01
GA-0.27
PPG0.71
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score0.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate14.0%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate0.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score18.88
Rest days-13.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.87
Current Team ELO40.99
Current Opponent ELO-40.99
Current ELO Difference81.99
Expected score0.12
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bollullos

D
Conil0–0Bollullos1 Nov · away
Pick: Bollullos 41% · missed
L
Bollullos0–1Dos Hermanas25 Oct · home
Pick: Bollullos 45% · missed
D
Egabrense2–2Bollullos4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pozoblanco

L
Portuense3–1Pozoblanco25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
W
Pozoblanco3–1Linense4 Oct · home
Pick: Pozoblanco 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bollullos and Pozoblanco meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bollullos win 53.9%, draw 24.6%, Pozoblanco win 21.5%. The pick is Bollullos win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.3%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.