ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

Ceuta II vs Linense

Ceuta II Home · Elo 1,515
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Linense Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ceuta II win
Ceuta II winPick
44.5%
Draw
31.5%
Linense win
24.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%

How much we know

Ceuta II history51 matches
Linense history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ceuta II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,515 against 1,514. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Ceuta II score more

    1.25 goals a game over 51 matches for Ceuta II, against 1.13 over 48 for Linense.

  • Linense concede fewer

    Ceuta II concede 1.29 a game, Linense 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Ceuta II matches, against 35% for Linense. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ceuta II
Linense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.0
ELO
1514.1
51
ELO · Matches
48
1515.0
Current Team ELO
1514.1
1514.1
Current Opponent ELO
1515.0
0.88
Current ELO Difference
-0.88
0.50
Expected score
0.50
51
History Matches
48
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.91
Overperformance
51.05
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
48
1.39
PPG
1.33
35.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
31.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
35.4%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
10.4%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
24
1.76
PPG
1.25
48.0%
Win rate
33.3%
32.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.13
70.6%
Scoring rate
60.4%
47.1%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
54.2%
48.0%
BTTS rate
29.2%
51
History Matches
48
1.25
Goals Mean
1.13
1.06
Goals Std
1.13
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
60.4%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.00
68.6%
Conceding rate
62.5%
0.84
Goals against per game
1.13
64.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
51
History Matches
48
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.21
Conceded Std
0.94
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
48
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.56
0.11
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
48
16
Lead Matches
13
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.95
17
Trailing Matches
8
35.3%
Non-loss rate
62.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
169.0
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.31
Portability PPG Range
0.78
76.19
Portability Score
56.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO0.88
PPG0.06
GF0.13
GA0.29
PPG0.51
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate10.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.86
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score19.88
Rest days-13.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO0.88
Current Opponent ELO-0.88
Current ELO Difference1.77
Expected score0.00
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ceuta II

W
Ceuta II5–2Utrera24 Oct · home
Pick: Ceuta II 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Linense

D
Linense1–1Recreativo Huelva25 Oct · home
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 43% · missed
L
Pozoblanco3–1Linense4 Oct · away
Pick: Pozoblanco 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ceuta II and Linense meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ceuta II win 44.5%, draw 31.5%, Linense win 24.0%. The pick is Ceuta II win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.4%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.