ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

Egabrense vs Chiclana

Egabrense Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chiclana Away · Elo 1,476
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chiclana win
Egabrense win
34.4%
Draw
27.2%
Chiclana winPick
38.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%

How much we know

Egabrense history0 matches
Chiclana history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Chiclana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,476. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Egabrense
Chiclana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.0
ELO
1475.7
0
ELO · Matches
34
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1475.7
1475.7
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
24.28
Current ELO Difference
-24.28
0.53
Expected score
0.47
0
History Matches
34
—
Residual Mean
-0.04
—
Overperformance
47.78
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.20
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Win rate
20.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.10
—
Goals for per game
0.90
—
Goals against per game
1.10
—
Win rate
20.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
0
Matches
34
—
PPG
1.18
—
Win rate
26.5%
—
Draw rate
38.2%
—
Loss rate
35.3%
—
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
—
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
—
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
0
Matches
17
—
PPG
0.65
—
Win rate
5.9%
—
Draw rate
47.1%
—
Loss rate
47.1%
—
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
—
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
—
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.52
0
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.09
—
Scoring rate
70.6%
—
BTTS rate
58.8%
—
Goals for per game
0.82
—
Scoring rate
70.6%
—
BTTS rate
64.7%
0
History Matches
34
—
Goals Mean
1.09
—
Goals Std
0.95
—
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
—
Scored 2+ rate
29.4%
—
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.74
—
Conceding rate
79.4%
—
Goals against per game
2.35
—
Conceding rate
88.2%
0
History Matches
34
—
Conceded Mean
1.74
—
Conceded Std
2.50
—
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
2.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
0
History Matches
34
—
Result entropy
0.99
—
Goal Difference Std
2.84
—
Stability score
1.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
0
Eligible Matches
34
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.71
0
Trailing Matches
11
—
Non-loss rate
18.2%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
23
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
0
Long Rest History Matches
10
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
0
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO24.28
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-34
History Matches-17
History Matches-34
History Matches-34
History Matches-34
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-11
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Long Rest History Matches-10
Current Team ELO24.28
Current Opponent ELO-24.28
Current ELO Difference48.55
Expected score0.07
History Matches-34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Egabrense

W
Recreativo Huelva1–2Egabrense1 Nov · away
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 63% · missed
L
San Roque Lepe1–0Egabrense25 Oct · away
Pick: San Roque Lepe 63% · hit
D
Egabrense2–2Bollullos4 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chiclana

L
Xerez Deportivo3–2Chiclana24 Oct · away
Pick: Xerez Deportivo 59% · hit
D
Chiclana1–1Sevilla III4 Oct · home
Pick: Sevilla III 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Egabrense and Chiclana meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Egabrense win 34.4%, draw 27.2%, Chiclana win 38.4%. The pick is Chiclana win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.