ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 17 2026

Bracknell Town vs Frome Town

Bracknell Town Home · Elo 1,502
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Frome Town Away · Elo 1,607
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Frome Town win
Bracknell Town win
21.1%
Draw
21.3%
Frome Town winPick
57.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Bracknell Town history71 matches
Frome Town history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Frome Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Frome Town are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,502. On rating alone Frome Town would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.58 goals a game over 71 matches for Bracknell Town, against 1.73 over 71 for Frome Town.

  • Frome Town concede fewer

    Bracknell Town concede 1.86 a game, Frome Town 0.93.

  • Bracknell Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Bracknell Town matches, against 46% for Frome Town. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bracknell Town
Frome Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.4
ELO
1607.3
71
ELO · Matches
71
1502.4
Current Team ELO
1607.3
1607.3
Current Opponent ELO
1502.4
-104.8
Current ELO Difference
104.8
0.35
Expected score
0.65
71
History Matches
71
0.00
Residual Mean
0.08
50.10
Overperformance
55.87
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.90
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
2.39
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.97
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
71
1.23
PPG
1.79
33.8%
Win rate
52.1%
21.1%
Draw rate
22.5%
45.1%
Loss rate
25.4%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.5%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
1.46
PPG
1.91
42.9%
Win rate
57.1%
17.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
22.9%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
51.4%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.73
76.1%
Scoring rate
74.6%
62.0%
BTTS rate
40.8%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.97
80.0%
Scoring rate
74.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.75
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
71
History Matches
71
1.58
Goals Mean
1.73
1.50
Goals Std
1.44
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
50.7%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
31.0%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
0.93
83.1%
Conceding rate
59.2%
1.74
Goals against per game
0.86
77.1%
Conceding rate
60.0%
2.75
Goals against per game
0.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
71
1.86
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.45
Conceded Std
1.03
56.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.1%
26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.9%
1.74
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
71
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.87
4.04
Stability score
6.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
63
17
Lead Matches
27
52.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.90
26
Trailing Matches
11
19.2%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
11.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.11
58
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
4
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
3.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.53
Portability PPG Range
1.35
48.24
Portability Score
54.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-104.8
PPG-0.56
GF-0.15
GA0.93
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.46
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.12
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.93
Conceded Std0.42
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate35.2%
Conceded 3+ rate16.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.14
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score-2.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.67
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.36
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate1.0%
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.59
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-6.17
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Current Team ELO-104.8
Current Opponent ELO104.8
Current ELO Difference-209.7
Expected score-0.29
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bracknell Town

L
Bracknell Town1–2Chertsey Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Chertsey Town 48% · hit
L
Evesham United3–2Bracknell Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Evesham United 52% · hit
L
Bracknell Town1–3Gosport Borough27 Oct · home
Pick: Gosport Borough 39% · hit
L
Taunton Town4–0Bracknell Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Taunton Town 57% · hit
W
Bracknell Town1–0Chichester City17 Oct · home
Pick: Chichester City 42% · missed

Frome Town

L
Frome Town2–3Chichester City31 Oct · home
Pick: Frome Town 50% · missed
L
Malvern Town2–0Frome Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Frome Town 54% · missed
W
Chippenham Town0–2Frome Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Frome Town 55% · hit
W
Frome Town1–0Bath City31 Aug · home
Pick: Frome Town 55% · hit
W
Chertsey Town1–2Frome Town29 Aug · away
Pick: Chertsey Town 50% · missed

About this match

Bracknell Town and Frome Town meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bracknell Town win 21.1%, draw 21.3%, Frome Town win 57.6%. The pick is Frome Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.