ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 17 2026

Hanwell Town vs Evesham United

Hanwell Town Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Evesham United Away · Elo 1,482
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hanwell Town win
Hanwell Town winPick
49.8%
Draw
24.2%
Evesham United win
26.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Hanwell Town history71 matches
Evesham United history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hanwell Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,482. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 71 matches for Hanwell Town, against 1.34 over 71 for Evesham United.

  • Defences are close

    Hanwell Town concede 1.52 a game, Evesham United 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Hanwell Town matches, against 51% for Evesham United. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hanwell Town
Evesham United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.1
ELO
1482.4
71
ELO · Matches
71
1498.1
Current Team ELO
1482.4
1482.4
Current Opponent ELO
1498.1
15.66
Current ELO Difference
-15.66
0.52
Expected score
0.48
71
History Matches
71
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
50.27
Overperformance
49.91
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
71
1.31
PPG
1.35
35.2%
Win rate
36.6%
25.4%
Draw rate
25.4%
39.4%
Loss rate
38.0%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
54.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.7%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
31
1.62
PPG
0.97
43.2%
Win rate
22.6%
32.4%
Draw rate
29.0%
24.3%
Loss rate
48.4%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
37
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.34
70.4%
Scoring rate
73.2%
52.1%
BTTS rate
53.5%
1.49
Goals for per game
1.13
81.1%
Scoring rate
64.5%
56.8%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
71
1.34
Goals Mean
1.34
1.19
Goals Std
1.26
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
1.49
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.42
77.5%
Conceding rate
76.1%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.87
70.3%
Conceding rate
90.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
71
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.21
Conceded Std
1.27
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.3%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
71
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.91
1.48
Stability score
1.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
65
19
Lead Matches
17
63.2%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.78
23
Trailing Matches
23
26.1%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
53
Normal Rest History Matches
56
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
10
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.04
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.01
Portability PPG Range
0.80
56.76
Portability Score
64.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO15.66
PPG-0.04
GF0.00
GA0.10
PPG-0.25
PPG0.65
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate20.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.81
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score0.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-7.57
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO15.66
Current Opponent ELO-15.66
Current ELO Difference31.32
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hanwell Town

L
Poole Town3–0Hanwell Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Poole Town 44% · hit
L
Gosport Borough3–2Hanwell Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Hanwell Town 38% · missed
W
Hanwell Town6–1Havant & Wville27 Oct · home
Pick: Hanwell Town 52% · hit
L
Hanwell Town0–2Bath City17 Oct · home
Pick: Hanwell Town 39% · missed
D
Hanwell Town1–1Chertsey Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Chertsey Town 45% · missed

Evesham United

L
Chippenham Town4–2Evesham United3 Nov · away
Pick: Chippenham Town 41% · hit
W
Evesham United3–2Bracknell Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Evesham United 52% · hit
L
Evesham United0–4Halesowen Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Halesowen Town 44% · hit
L
Chertsey Town2–0Evesham United20 Oct · away
Pick: Chertsey Town 61% · hit
L
Evesham United1–4Taunton Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Evesham United 38% · missed

About this match

Hanwell Town and Evesham United meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hanwell Town win 49.8%, draw 24.2%, Evesham United win 26.0%. The pick is Hanwell Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.