ScoreProb
1. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij

Brinje-Grosuplje Home · Elo 1,580
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aluminij Away · Elo 1,486
Nogometni park Brinje, Grosuplje Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brinje-Grosuplje win
Brinje-Grosuplje winPick
39.2%
Draw
22.0%
Aluminij win
38.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%

How much we know

Brinje-Grosuplje history65 matches
Aluminij history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Brinje-Grosuplje are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brinje-Grosuplje are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,486. On rating alone Brinje-Grosuplje would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Brinje-Grosuplje score more

    1.85 goals a game over 65 matches for Brinje-Grosuplje, against 1.52 over 73 for Aluminij.

  • Brinje-Grosuplje concede fewer

    Brinje-Grosuplje concede 1.20 a game, Aluminij 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Brinje-Grosuplje matches, against 62% for Aluminij. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Aluminij@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.4
ELO
1486.2
65
ELO · Matches
73
1580.4
Current Team ELO
1486.2
1486.2
Current Opponent ELO
1580.4
94.23
Current ELO Difference
-94.23
0.63
Expected score
0.37
65
History Matches
73
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.20
Overperformance
49.01
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
73
1.91
PPG
1.32
56.9%
Win rate
38.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.4%
23.1%
Loss rate
45.2%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
55.4%
Over 2.5 rate
61.6%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.1%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
38
2.00
PPG
1.29
61.1%
Win rate
39.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
10.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
36
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.52
81.5%
Scoring rate
72.6%
47.7%
BTTS rate
56.2%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.47
80.6%
Scoring rate
71.1%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.60
83.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
73
1.85
Goals Mean
1.52
1.57
Goals Std
1.49
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.6%
50.8%
Scored 2+ rate
41.1%
27.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.44
64.6%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.53
61.1%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.83
Goals against per game
1.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
65
History Matches
73
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.46
Conceded Std
1.17
29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.8%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
73
0.89
Result entropy
0.93
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.05
10.70
Stability score
6.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
73
29
Lead Matches
20
82.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
30
35.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.94
Rest days
78.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.11
37
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
5
0.83
PPG
1.60
16.7%
Win rate
40.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
6
Current Competition Matches
5
0.83
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.92
1.67
Portability PPG Range
2.86
44.36
Portability Score
35.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO94.23
PPG0.59
GF0.33
GA-0.24
PPG-0.77
PPG0.71
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.33
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate8.9%
Scored 2+ rate9.7%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.67
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score3.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.51
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.77
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.27
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-1.19
Portability Score9.10
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.22
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO94.23
Current Opponent ELO-94.23
Current ELO Difference188.5
Expected score0.26
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brinje-Grosuplje

D
Mura0–0Brinje-Grosuplje1 Nov · away
Pick: Mura 41% · missed
D
Brinje-Grosuplje0–0Bravo29 Oct · home
Pick: Bravo 39% · missed
W
Videm0–2Brinje-Grosuplje25 Oct · away
Pick: Brinje-Grosuplje 37% · hit
L
Koper5–0Brinje-Grosuplje18 Oct · away
Pick: Koper 57% · hit
W
Brinje-Grosuplje4–1Celje30 Aug · home
Pick: Celje 50% · missed

Aluminij

W
Aluminij5–0Radomlje31 Oct · home
Pick: Aluminij 55% · hit
D
Nafta0–0Aluminij28 Oct · away
Pick: Nafta 40% · missed
L
Aluminij0–1Olimpija Ljubljana16 Oct · home
Pick: Aluminij 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij meet in 1. SNL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Nogometni park Brinje, Grosuplje. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Brinje-Grosuplje win 39.2%, draw 22.0%, Aluminij win 38.8%. The pick is Brinje-Grosuplje win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.