ScoreProb
1. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Radomlje vs Celje

Radomlje Home · Elo 1,442
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Celje Away · Elo 1,645
Venue to be confirmed Referee: A. Borosak Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Celje win
Radomlje win
20.4%
Draw
20.1%
Celje winPick
59.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%

How much we know

Radomlje history67 matches
Celje history97 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.5%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.

Why Celje are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Celje are rated 203 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,645 against 1,442. On rating alone Celje would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Celje score far more

    1.27 goals a game over 67 matches for Radomlje, against 2.20 over 97 for Celje.

  • Celje concede fewer

    Radomlje concede 2.00 a game, Celje 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of Radomlje matches, against 64% for Celje. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Radomlje
Celje@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1441.7
ELO
1645.0
67
ELO · Matches
97
1441.7
Current Team ELO
1645.0
1645.0
Current Opponent ELO
1441.7
-203.3
Current ELO Difference
203.3
0.24
Expected score
0.76
67
History Matches
97
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
47.30
Overperformance
56.18
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.90
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
97
1.09
PPG
1.90
31.3%
Win rate
55.7%
14.9%
Draw rate
22.7%
53.7%
Loss rate
21.6%
92.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
71.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
40.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.4%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
47
1.17
PPG
1.96
36.1%
Win rate
59.6%
8.3%
Draw rate
17.0%
55.6%
Loss rate
23.4%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.8%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
36
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
2.20
73.1%
Scoring rate
89.7%
65.7%
BTTS rate
59.8%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.30
72.2%
Scoring rate
89.4%
61.1%
BTTS rate
51.1%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.75
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
67
History Matches
97
1.27
Goals Mean
2.20
1.07
Goals Std
1.57
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
61.9%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
37.1%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
2.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.19
91.0%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.81
Goals against per game
1.11
88.9%
Conceding rate
59.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
67
History Matches
97
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.49
Conceded Std
1.12
61.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.4%
1.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
9.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
97
0.89
Result entropy
0.90
2.14
Goal Difference Std
2.00
10.68
Stability score
9.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
95
23
Lead Matches
43
60.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.7%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.92
27
Trailing Matches
26
11.1%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
26.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
1.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
80.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
21
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.90
42
Normal Rest History Matches
61
0.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
22
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
0.80
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
5
Current Competition Matches
4
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
5
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.58
Portability PPG Range
2.00
48.47
Portability Score
46.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
97
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-203.3
PPG-0.81
GF-0.93
GA0.81
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.79
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-30
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate16.6%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate17.1%
History Matches-30
Goals Mean-0.93
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches-30
Conceded Mean0.81
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate26.1%
Conceded 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-30
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score1.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches-28
Lead Matches-20
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.39
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches-28
First Half Goals For Mean-0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.69
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.35
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score1.63
Rest days3.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-19
Short Rest Points Per Match0.10
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.94
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-203.3
Current Opponent ELO203.3
Current ELO Difference-406.6
Expected score-0.53
History Matches-30
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Radomlje

L
Aluminij5–0Radomlje31 Oct · away
Pick: Aluminij 55% · hit
D
Radomlje1–1Mura27 Oct · home
Pick: Radomlje 47% · missed
W
Podvinci0–1Radomlje24 Oct · away
Pick: Radomlje 43% · hit
D
Bravo2–2Radomlje17 Oct · away
Pick: Bravo 52% · missed
D
Radomlje0–0Olimpija Ljubljana29 Aug · home
Pick: Olimpija Ljubljana 40% · missed

Celje

W
Celje4–0Nafta1 Nov · home
Pick: Celje 60% · hit
D
Olimpija Ljubljana1–1Celje28 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 50% · missed
W
Korotan Prevalje0–2Celje25 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 63% · hit
D
Celje2–2Red Bull Salzburg22 Oct · home
Pick: Celje 50% · missed
D
Maribor0–0Celje18 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 36% · missed

About this match

Radomlje and Celje meet in 1. SNL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Radomlje win 20.4%, draw 20.1%, Celje win 59.5%. The pick is Celje win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.