ScoreProb
Championship England Round 14 2026

Bristol City vs Wolves

Bristol City Home · Elo 1,498
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wolves Away · Elo 1,496
Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol Referee: Tom Nield Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bristol City win
Bristol City winPick
39.1%
Draw
26.3%
Wolves win
34.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Bristol City history83 matches
Wolves history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bristol City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 83 matches for Bristol City, against 1.21 over 72 for Wolves.

  • Bristol City concede fewer

    Bristol City concede 1.23 a game, Wolves 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Bristol City matches, against 47% for Wolves. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bristol City
Wolves
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.5
ELO
1495.5
83
ELO · Matches
72
1497.5
Current Team ELO
1495.5
1495.5
Current Opponent ELO
1497.5
2.02
Current ELO Difference
-2.02
0.50
Expected score
0.50
83
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
49.74
Overperformance
50.12
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.60
0.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
72
1.40
PPG
1.14
37.3%
Win rate
30.6%
27.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
34.9%
Loss rate
47.2%
74.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
25.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
35
1.63
PPG
1.09
48.8%
Win rate
28.6%
17.1%
Draw rate
22.9%
34.1%
Loss rate
48.6%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
11.4%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
41
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.21
66.3%
Scoring rate
69.4%
47.0%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.89
70.7%
Scoring rate
62.9%
43.9%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
83
History Matches
72
1.29
Goals Mean
1.21
1.26
Goals Std
1.15
66.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
39.8%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.46
71.1%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.37
68.3%
Conceding rate
77.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
83
History Matches
72
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.14
Conceded Std
1.18
33.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
33.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
33.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
72
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.79
0.70
Stability score
4.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
72
26
Lead Matches
17
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.92
28
Trailing Matches
27
28.6%
Non-loss rate
29.6%
10.7%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.35
Rest days
71.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.85
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
50
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
19
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.76
1.21
Portability PPG Range
1.92
50.02
Portability Score
39.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO2.02
PPG0.26
GF0.08
GA-0.23
PPG-1.50
PPG0.55
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.57
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches11
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-3.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate7.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score10.19
Rest days3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match0.65
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO2.02
Current Opponent ELO-2.02
Current ELO Difference4.04
Expected score0.01
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bristol City

W
Bolton2–3Bristol City31 Oct · away
Pick: Bolton 59% · missed
D
Stoke City0–0Bristol City24 Oct · away
Pick: Stoke City 36% · missed
L
Bristol City0–1Sheffield Utd17 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield Utd 42% · hit
L
Bristol City0–1Blackburn13 Oct · home
Pick: Blackburn 39% · hit
W
Preston1–3Bristol City1 Sep · away
Pick: Bristol City 38% · hit

Wolves

W
Wolves3–0Cardiff31 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 42% · hit
W
Wolves1–0Watford24 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 55% · hit
D
Wolves1–1Portsmouth20 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 48% · missed
W
Burnley1–2Wolves16 Oct · away
Pick: Wolves 44% · hit
L
Wolves1–3Bolton13 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 40% · missed

About this match

Bristol City and Wolves meet in Championship on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Bristol City win 39.1%, draw 26.3%, Wolves win 34.7%. The pick is Bristol City win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.