ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Derby vs Bolton

Derby Home · Elo 1,505
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bolton Away · Elo 1,602
Pride Park Stadium, Derby Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bolton win
Derby win
33.0%
Draw
26.8%
Bolton winPick
40.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Derby history80 matches
Bolton history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bolton are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bolton are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,602 against 1,505. On rating alone Bolton would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Bolton score more

    1.34 goals a game over 80 matches for Derby, against 1.59 over 90 for Bolton.

  • Bolton concede fewer

    Derby concede 1.26 a game, Bolton 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Derby matches, against 49% for Bolton. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Derby
Bolton
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.7
ELO
1602.5
80
ELO · Matches
90
1504.7
Current Team ELO
1602.5
1602.5
Current Opponent ELO
1504.7
-97.82
Current ELO Difference
97.82
0.36
Expected score
0.64
80
History Matches
90
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.62
Overperformance
54.36
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
90
1.39
PPG
1.71
38.8%
Win rate
47.8%
22.5%
Draw rate
27.8%
38.8%
Loss rate
24.4%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
46
1.41
PPG
1.35
37.8%
Win rate
34.8%
27.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
35.1%
Loss rate
34.8%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
37.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.3%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
37
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.59
82.5%
Scoring rate
76.7%
61.3%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.33
81.1%
Scoring rate
73.9%
54.1%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
90
1.34
Goals Mean
1.59
0.97
Goals Std
1.38
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
36.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.13
75.0%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.30
64.9%
Conceding rate
76.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
90
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.07
Conceded Std
1.02
35.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
90
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.62
2.57
Stability score
4.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
90
28
Lead Matches
26
67.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.91
19
Trailing Matches
21
31.6%
Non-loss rate
52.4%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
23.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.25
Rest days
76.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.83
61
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
13
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
8
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.58
61.78
Portability Score
47.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-97.82
PPG-0.32
GF-0.25
GA0.13
PPG-1.50
PPG0.06
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate7.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-1.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score14.69
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.37
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO-97.82
Current Opponent ELO97.82
Current ELO Difference-195.6
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Derby

L
Derby0–4Norwich3 Nov · home
Pick: Derby 46% · missed
L
Millwall4–1Derby31 Oct · away
Pick: Millwall 62% · hit
D
Sheffield Utd1–1Derby24 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield Utd 51% · missed
L
Derby0–1Stoke City17 Oct · home
Pick: Derby 50% · missed
L
QPR4–1Derby14 Oct · away
Pick: QPR 50% · hit

Bolton

W
Charlton0–1Bolton3 Nov · away
Pick: Charlton 43% · missed
L
Bolton2–3Bristol City31 Oct · home
Pick: Bolton 59% · missed
L
Bolton1–5Middlesbrough23 Oct · home
Pick: Bolton 57% · missed
D
Southampton0–0Bolton17 Oct · away
Pick: Southampton 43% · missed
W
Wolves1–3Bolton13 Oct · away
Pick: Wolves 40% · missed

About this match

Derby and Bolton meet in Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Pride Park Stadium, Derby. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Derby win 33.0%, draw 26.8%, Bolton win 40.2%. The pick is Bolton win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.