ScoreProb
Championship England Round 14 2026

Cardiff vs West Ham

Cardiff Home · Elo 1,611
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
West Ham Away · Elo 1,529
Cardiff City Stadium Referee: Edward Duckworth Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cardiff win
Cardiff winPick
61.4%
Draw
22.1%
West Ham win
16.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.3%
No38.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%

How much we know

Cardiff history86 matches
West Ham history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Cardiff are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cardiff are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,611 against 1,529. On rating alone Cardiff would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Cardiff score more

    1.77 goals a game over 86 matches for Cardiff, against 1.36 over 70 for West Ham.

  • Defences are close

    Cardiff concede 1.38 a game, West Ham 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Cardiff matches, against 54% for West Ham. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cardiff
West Ham
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1610.6
ELO
1529.1
86
ELO · Matches
70
1610.6
Current Team ELO
1529.1
1529.1
Current Opponent ELO
1610.6
81.57
Current ELO Difference
-81.57
0.62
Expected score
0.38
86
History Matches
70
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
55.09
Overperformance
51.20
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
3.10
Goals for per game
2.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
3.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
70
1.65
PPG
1.14
46.5%
Win rate
27.1%
25.6%
Draw rate
32.9%
27.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
38.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
38
1.84
PPG
1.18
55.8%
Win rate
28.9%
16.3%
Draw rate
31.6%
27.9%
Loss rate
39.5%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
37.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
43
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.36
82.6%
Scoring rate
74.3%
61.6%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.34
81.4%
Scoring rate
73.7%
58.1%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
70
1.77
Goals Mean
1.36
1.39
Goals Std
1.15
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.46
74.4%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.45
72.1%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
70
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.40
Conceded Std
1.13
33.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.75
3.43
Stability score
1.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
70
29
Lead Matches
23
79.3%
Lead Win Rate
56.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.65
21
Trailing Matches
23
33.3%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.07
Rest days
71.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
70
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
11
Long Rest History Matches
26
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
10
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.64
Portability PPG Range
0.50
47.97
Portability Score
70.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO81.57
PPG0.51
GF0.41
GA-0.07
PPG0.50
PPG0.65
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate8.3%
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.78
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score2.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.06
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate22.8%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.6%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range1.14
Portability Score-22.96
Rest days0.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO81.57
Current Opponent ELO-81.57
Current ELO Difference163.1
Expected score0.23
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cardiff

L
Wolves3–0Cardiff31 Oct · away
Pick: Wolves 42% · hit
W
Cardiff1–0Birmingham24 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff 44% · hit
D
Middlesbrough2–2Cardiff17 Oct · away
Pick: Middlesbrough 36% · missed
W
Cardiff5–1Watford13 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff 55% · hit
D
Cardiff2–2Sheffield Utd29 Aug · home
Pick: Cardiff 50% · missed

West Ham

L
West Ham1–3West Brom31 Oct · home
Pick: West Brom 36% · hit
L
West Ham2–3Southampton24 Oct · home
Pick: Southampton 39% · hit
W
Swansea0–1West Ham17 Oct · away
Pick: Swansea 52% · missed
W
Lincoln0–6West Ham14 Oct · away
Pick: Lincoln 46% · missed
W
West Ham4–2Wolves1 Sep · home
Pick: West Ham 38% · hit

About this match

Cardiff and West Ham meet in Championship on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Cardiff City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Cardiff win 61.4%, draw 22.1%, West Ham win 16.4%. The pick is Cardiff win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 61.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.