ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

BSG Chemie Leipzig vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

BSG Chemie Leipzig Home · Elo 1,468
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt Away · Elo 1,632
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win
BSG Chemie Leipzig win
17.8%
Draw
20.3%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt winPick
61.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%

How much we know

BSG Chemie Leipzig history67 matches
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt are rated 164 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,468. On rating alone FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt score far more

    1.19 goals a game over 67 matches for BSG Chemie Leipzig, against 2.10 over 67 for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt.

  • Defences are close

    BSG Chemie Leipzig concede 1.52 a game, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1.37.

  • FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of BSG Chemie Leipzig matches, against 64% for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BSG Chemie Leipzig
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.7
ELO
1631.6
67
ELO · Matches
67
1467.7
Current Team ELO
1631.6
1631.6
Current Opponent ELO
1467.7
-163.8
Current ELO Difference
163.8
0.28
Expected score
0.72
67
History Matches
67
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
48.69
Overperformance
58.56
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.60
0.20
Goals for per game
3.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.30
0.50
Goals for per game
2.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.14
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
67
1.06
PPG
1.91
28.4%
Win rate
56.7%
20.9%
Draw rate
20.9%
50.7%
Loss rate
22.4%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.1%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
29.9%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
28
1.11
PPG
1.89
31.4%
Win rate
57.1%
17.1%
Draw rate
17.9%
51.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
35
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
2.10
62.7%
Scoring rate
85.1%
46.3%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.86
68.6%
Scoring rate
82.1%
54.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.17
Goals for per game
3.67
16.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
16.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
67
History Matches
67
1.19
Goals Mean
2.10
1.25
Goals Std
1.47
62.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.1%
32.8%
Scored 2+ rate
61.2%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
38.8%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.37
79.1%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.77
Goals against per game
1.04
85.7%
Conceding rate
64.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
67
History Matches
67
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.18
Conceded Std
1.35
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
1.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
83.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
67
0.94
Result entropy
0.90
1.86
Goal Difference Std
2.00
6.36
Stability score
10.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
63
17
Lead Matches
29
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.87
22
Trailing Matches
12
22.7%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.04
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
34
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
27
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
0.17
PPG
2.67
0.0%
Win rate
83.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
83.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.17
Current Competition PPG
2.67
-1.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.87
52.33
Portability Score
60.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-163.8
PPG-0.85
GF-0.91
GA0.15
PPG-2.50
PPG-0.78
PPG-2.40
PPG-1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate22.4%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate13.6%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.91
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.46
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-4.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.35
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.17
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.32
Portability Score-8.43
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-163.8
Current Opponent ELO163.8
Current ELO Difference-327.7
Expected score-0.44
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BSG Chemie Leipzig

D
Greifswalder FC1–1BSG Chemie Leipzig1 Nov · away
Pick: Greifswalder FC 57% · missed
W
BSG Chemie Leipzig2–0Hertha BSC II25 Oct · home
Pick: BSG Chemie Leipzig 50% · hit
D
Lokomotive Leipzig2–2BSG Chemie Leipzig17 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotive Leipzig 60% · missed
L
Magdeburg II1–0BSG Chemie Leipzig25 Aug · away
Pick: Magdeburg II 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

W
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt4–1SV Babelsberg 031 Nov · home
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 67% · hit
W
Greifswalder FC2–3FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 48% · hit
D
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt2–2FSV Zwickau16 Oct · home
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 65% · missed
D
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt1–1BFC Preussen29 Aug · home
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 66% · missed
W
Luckenwalde0–5FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt25 Aug · away
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 58% · hit

About this match

BSG Chemie Leipzig and FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: BSG Chemie Leipzig win 17.8%, draw 20.3%, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win 61.9%. The pick is FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.5%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.