Budaörs vs Érdi VSE
Match result probability Model pick: Érdi VSE win
Budaörs win
30.2%
Draw
24.9%
Érdi VSE winPick
44.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes61.8%
No38.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%
How much we know
Budaörs history51 matches
Érdi VSE history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Érdi VSE
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Érdi VSE are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Érdi VSE are rated 65 Elo points higher
Elo 1,568 against 1,503. On rating alone Érdi VSE would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Budaörs score more
1.73 goals a game over 51 matches for Budaörs, against 1.50 over 50 for Érdi VSE.
-
Érdi VSE concede fewer
Budaörs concede 1.92 a game, Érdi VSE 1.32.
-
Budaörs games more often go over 2.5 goals
71% of Budaörs matches, against 50% for Érdi VSE. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Érdi VSE@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1502.9
ELO
1568.2
51
ELO · Matches
50
1502.9
Current Team ELO
1568.2
1568.2
Current Opponent ELO
1502.9
-65.22
Current ELO Difference
65.22
0.41
Expected score
0.59
51
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
50.40
Overperformance
55.06
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
2.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
2.06
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
50
1.35
PPG
1.64
39.2%
Win rate
48.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
43.1%
Loss rate
32.0%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
49.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
24
1.58
PPG
1.38
46.2%
Win rate
37.5%
19.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.6%
Loss rate
37.5%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
57.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.50
72.5%
Scoring rate
78.0%
58.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.23
Goals for per game
1.46
80.8%
Scoring rate
79.2%
65.4%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
50
1.73
Goals Mean
1.50
1.70
Goals Std
1.20
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
45.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.0%
27.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.0%
2.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.92
Goals against per game
1.32
82.4%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.46
76.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
50
1.92
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.56
Conceded Std
1.32
54.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
50
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.56
Goal Difference Std
1.75
5.71
Stability score
5.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
50
18
Lead Matches
17
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.88
18
Trailing Matches
10
16.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
89.85
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
1.67
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
3.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.43
73.90
Portability Score
74.94
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-65.22
PPG-0.29
GF0.23
GA0.60
PPG0.08
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.33
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate13.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.12
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.81
Stability score0.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.11
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score-1.05
Rest days5.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.09
Current Team ELO-65.22
Current Opponent ELO65.22
Current ELO Difference-130.4
Expected score-0.19
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Budaörs
L
Majosi4–3Budaörs31 Oct · away
Pick: Majosi 53% · hit L
Budaörs0–6Pécsi MFC24 Oct · home
Pick: Pécsi MFC 72% · hit L
Dunaharaszti MTK3–0Budaörs17 Oct · away
Pick: Dunaharaszti MTK 48% · hit L
Budaörs1–3Budafoki LC29 Aug · home
Pick: Budafoki LC 39% · hit L
PTE-PEAC6–1Budaörs26 Aug · away
Pick: PTE-PEAC 48% · hit Érdi VSE
W
Érdi VSE2–1Siofok31 Oct · home
Pick: Érdi VSE 51% · hit D
Budafoki LC2–2Érdi VSE24 Oct · away
Pick: Érdi VSE 38% · missed W
Érdi VSE3–1PTE-PEAC17 Oct · home
Pick: Érdi VSE 53% · hit L
Majosi3–2Érdi VSE30 Aug · away
Pick: Majosi 40% · hit L
Érdi VSE1–2Pécsi MFC26 Aug · home
Pick: Pécsi MFC 58% · hit About this match
Budaörs and Érdi VSE meet in NB III - Southwest on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Budaörs win 30.2%, draw 24.9%, Érdi VSE win 44.9%. The pick is Érdi VSE win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.