ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

Bumprom vs Gomel II

Bumprom Home · Elo 1,535
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gomel II Away · Elo 1,380
SDYuShOR-6 Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bumprom win
Bumprom winPick
71.7%
Draw
15.1%
Gomel II win
13.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%

How much we know

Bumprom history64 matches
Gomel II history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Bumprom are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bumprom are rated 155 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,380. On rating alone Bumprom would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Bumprom score more

    1.70 goals a game over 64 matches for Bumprom, against 1.13 over 53 for Gomel II.

  • Bumprom concede fewer

    Bumprom concede 1.17 a game, Gomel II 2.21.

  • Gomel II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Bumprom matches, against 66% for Gomel II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bumprom
Gomel II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.3
ELO
1380.2
64
ELO · Matches
53
1535.3
Current Team ELO
1380.2
1380.2
Current Opponent ELO
1535.3
155.1
Current ELO Difference
-155.1
0.71
Expected score
0.29
64
History Matches
53
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.11
51.32
Overperformance
42.07
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.57
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
53
1.66
PPG
0.89
46.9%
Win rate
24.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.1%
28.1%
Loss rate
60.4%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.4%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.63
PPG
0.81
46.7%
Win rate
23.1%
23.3%
Draw rate
11.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
65.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.13
82.8%
Scoring rate
66.0%
57.8%
BTTS rate
54.7%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.00
76.7%
Scoring rate
65.4%
60.0%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.33
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
71.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
64
History Matches
53
1.70
Goals Mean
1.13
1.41
Goals Std
1.10
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
2.21
70.3%
Conceding rate
83.0%
1.17
Goals against per game
2.27
76.7%
Conceding rate
88.5%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.76
81.0%
Conceding rate
76.2%
64
History Matches
53
1.17
Conceded Mean
2.21
1.01
Conceded Std
1.68
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.4%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
39.6%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
2.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
0.85
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.15
3.65
Stability score
14.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
53
23
Lead Matches
11
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.76
16
Trailing Matches
18
37.5%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.62
PPG
0.95
47.6%
Win rate
23.8%
19.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.62
Current Competition PPG
0.95
0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
6
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.05
1.74
Portability PPG Range
0.11
38.70
Portability Score
90.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO155.1
PPG0.77
GF0.57
GA-1.04
PPG0.67
PPG0.83
PPG1.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate16.8%
Scored 2+ rate10.1%
Scored 3+ rate13.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-1.04
Conceded Std-0.67
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches11
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-11.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.97
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate9.9%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate20.8%
Trailing Win Rate13.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.95
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.74
Portability PPG Range1.63
Portability Score-51.50
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.82
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO155.1
Current Opponent ELO-155.1
Current ELO Difference310.2
Expected score0.42
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bumprom

L
Orsha3–2Bumprom31 Oct · away
Pick: Bumprom 57% · missed
L
Bumprom1–3Volna24 Oct · home
Pick: Bumprom 60% · missed
W
Bumprom2–1Minsk II4 Oct · home
Pick: Bumprom 61% · hit
L
FC Slutsk4–1Bumprom29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Slutsk 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gomel II

L
Gomel II1–4Minsk II2 Nov · home
Pick: Minsk II 45% · hit
W
Osipovichy1–4Gomel II25 Oct · away
Pick: Osipovichy 44% · missed
D
BATE II2–2Gomel II29 Aug · away
Pick: BATE II 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bumprom and Gomel II meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at SDYuShOR-6 Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bumprom win 71.7%, draw 15.1%, Gomel II win 13.3%. The pick is Bumprom win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.8%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.