ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Elite World League Phase - 4 2026

Buriram United vs Kashima

Buriram United Home · Elo 1,709
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kashima Away · Elo 1,703
Chang Arena, Buriram Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Buriram United win
Buriram United winPick
62.9%
Draw
22.7%
Kashima win
14.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Buriram United history90 matches
Kashima history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 12:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Buriram United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,709 against 1,703. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Buriram United score more

    2.28 goals a game over 90 matches for Buriram United, against 1.67 over 70 for Kashima.

  • Defences are close

    Buriram United concede 0.93 a game, Kashima 0.87.

  • Buriram United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Buriram United matches, against 47% for Kashima. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Buriram United
Kashima
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1709.3
ELO
1702.8
90
ELO · Matches
70
1709.3
Current Team ELO
1702.8
1702.8
Current Opponent ELO
1709.3
6.51
Current ELO Difference
-6.51
0.51
Expected score
0.49
90
History Matches
70
0.11
Residual Mean
0.14
59.35
Overperformance
61.23
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
3.00
2.20
Goals for per game
3.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.50
1.60
Goals for per game
2.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
90
Matches
70
2.13
PPG
2.13
63.3%
Win rate
64.3%
23.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
13.3%
Loss rate
15.7%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
34
2.20
PPG
1.74
65.2%
Win rate
50.0%
23.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
10.9%
Loss rate
26.5%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
46
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.28
Goals for per game
1.67
85.6%
Scoring rate
90.0%
54.4%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.41
84.8%
Scoring rate
82.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
90
History Matches
70
2.28
Goals Mean
1.67
1.77
Goals Std
1.12
85.6%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
65.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
34.4%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.93
Goals against per game
0.87
62.2%
Conceding rate
54.3%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.09
58.7%
Conceding rate
61.8%
90
History Matches
70
0.93
Conceded Mean
0.87
0.93
Conceded Std
1.07
23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
14.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
14.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
90
History Matches
70
0.82
Result entropy
0.82
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.56
18.31
Stability score
18.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
67
36
Lead Matches
22
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.91
22
Trailing Matches
14
59.1%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
31.8%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
1.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
100.9
Rest days
74.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.94
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.17
61
Normal Rest History Matches
36
2.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.17
12
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
12
Competition Season Count
6
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.05
Portability PPG Range
1.25
58.18
Portability Score
54.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
90
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO6.51
PPG0.00
GF0.61
GA0.06
PPG0.46
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches20
Goals Mean0.61
Goals Std0.65
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate19.8%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches20
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches20
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.62
Stability score-0.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate3.5%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate1.9%
Trailing Win Rate10.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score3.81
Rest days26.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO6.51
Current Opponent ELO-6.51
Current ELO Difference13.02
Expected score0.02
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Buriram United

D
Gamba Osaka1–1Buriram United28 Oct · away
Pick: Buriram United 48% · missed
L
Buriram United2–3Sisaket United24 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 66% · missed
W
Buriram United8–0DPU Thayang FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 62% · hit
W
Pattani0–1Buriram United18 Oct · away
Pick: Buriram United 55% · hit
L
Buriram United0–1Beijing Guoan13 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 59% · missed

Kashima

W
Kashima4–1Cerezo Osaka31 Oct · home
Pick: Kashima 59% · hit
W
Kashima3–0Pohang Steelers28 Oct · home
Pick: Kashima 42% · hit
L
Kashima2–3Kashiwa Reysol24 Oct · home
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 35% · hit
D
Kyoto Sanga2–2Kashima21 Oct · away
Pick: Kashima 52% · missed
W
Kashima2–0V-varen Nagasaki17 Oct · home
Pick: Kashima 61% · hit

About this match

Buriram United and Kashima meet in AFC Champions League Elite on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at Chang Arena, Buriram. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Buriram United win 62.9%, draw 22.7%, Kashima win 14.4%. The pick is Buriram United win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.