ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Elite World League Phase - 4 2026

Pohang Steelers vs Gamba Osaka

Pohang Steelers Home · Elo 1,530
LIVE · 64'
1–1
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
Gamba Osaka Away · Elo 1,595
Pohang Steel Yard Referee: Al-Naqbi, Adel Ali Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Gamba Osaka win
Pohang Steelers win
31.7%
Draw
26.5%
Gamba Osaka winPick
41.8%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

34'
GoalRyotaro Meshino · assist Soya Fujiwara
SubstitutionJung Han-Min off · Cho Sang-Hyeok on
45'
SubstitutionAn Jae-Joon off · Wanderson Oliveira on
45'
51'
Yellow cardSoya Fujiwara
GoalWanderson Oliveira · assist Kim Dong-Jin
55'
Yellow cardPark Chan-yong
57'
61'
SubstitutionSoya Fujiwara off · Takeru Kishimoto on
61'
SubstitutionTsuyoshi Ogashiwa off · Koshiro Sumi on
SubstitutionKento Nishiya off · Ki Sung-Yueng on
63'

Lineups

Pohang Steelers 4-1-4-1 · Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1

Substitutes · Pohang Steelers · Coach Seong-jae Kim

  • 14Lee Chang-Woo
  • 40Ki Sung-Yueng
  • 77Wanderson
  • 17Shin Kwang-Hoon
  • 18Cho Sang-Hyeok
  • 22K. Gwang-won
  • 12Hwang Jae-Hwan
  • 25Jorge Luiz
  • 33Jo Sung-Wook
  • 13Kang Min-Jun
  • 1Yun Pyeong-Gook
  • 30Kim Yong-Hak

Substitutes · Gamba Osaka · Coach Tomokazu Myojin

  • 31Zhang Ao lin
  • 35T. Tono
  • 39K. Sumi
  • 37N. Nakatsumi
  • 15T. Kishimoto
  • 11I. Jebali
  • 1M. Higashiguchi
  • 21R. Hatsuse
  • 13S. Abe
  • 17R. Yamashita

Live stats

Pohang Steelers left, Gamba Osaka right

Possession 38% 62%
Expected goals (xG) 0.77 0.65
Shots 5 7
Shots on target 3 1
Corners 1 3
Fouls 3 12
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Offsides 0 1
Saves 0 3

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Gamba Osaka win · 41.8%
Level: 1–1
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 52.1%
Already in
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 51.8%
Needs 1 more goal
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Pohang Steelers history75 matches
Gamba Osaka history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
Save picture

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gamba Osaka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gamba Osaka are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,595 against 1,530. On rating alone Gamba Osaka would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Gamba Osaka score more

    1.07 goals a game over 75 matches for Pohang Steelers, against 1.61 over 88 for Gamba Osaka.

  • Defences are close

    Pohang Steelers concede 1.23 a game, Gamba Osaka 1.34.

  • Gamba Osaka games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Pohang Steelers matches, against 52% for Gamba Osaka. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pohang Steelers
Gamba Osaka
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.6
ELO
1595.4
75
ELO · Matches
88
1529.6
Current Team ELO
1595.4
1595.4
Current Opponent ELO
1529.6
-65.73
Current ELO Difference
65.73
0.41
Expected score
0.59
75
History Matches
88
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.28
Overperformance
54.36
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
88
1.43
PPG
1.58
41.3%
Win rate
43.2%
18.7%
Draw rate
28.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
28.4%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.3%
18.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.1%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
44
1.47
PPG
1.39
41.7%
Win rate
34.1%
22.2%
Draw rate
36.4%
36.1%
Loss rate
29.5%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
30.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
36
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.61
70.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
44.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.30
63.9%
Scoring rate
70.5%
36.1%
BTTS rate
47.7%
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Scoring rate
0.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
75
History Matches
88
1.07
Goals Mean
1.61
0.90
Goals Std
1.39
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
28.0%
Scored 2+ rate
47.7%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.7%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.34
68.0%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.23
61.1%
Conceding rate
65.9%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
75
History Matches
88
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.21
Conceded Std
1.24
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
88
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.72
4.88
Stability score
1.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
83
20
Lead Matches
22
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.85
23
Trailing Matches
22
26.1%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
70.98
Rest days
74.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.58
47
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
1.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
100.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
1.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.39
Portability PPG Range
1.97
75.33
Portability Score
46.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-65.73
PPG-0.15
GF-0.55
GA-0.11
PPG0.09
PPG0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.58
Portability Score28.96
Rest days-3.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-65.73
Current Opponent ELO65.73
Current ELO Difference-131.5
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pohang Steelers

D
Pohang Steelers1–1Jeju United FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Pohang Steelers 43% · missed
L
Kashima3–0Pohang Steelers28 Oct · away
Pick: Kashima 42% · hit
D
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–2Pohang Steelers24 Oct · away
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% · missed
D
Pohang Steelers0–0FC Anyang18 Oct · home
Pick: Pohang Steelers 45% · missed
L
Pohang Steelers0–2Johor Darul Takzim FC13 Oct · home
Pick: Johor Darul Takzim FC 47% · hit

Gamba Osaka

D
Machida Zelvia0–0Gamba Osaka1 Nov · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 55% · missed
D
Gamba Osaka1–1Buriram United28 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 48% · missed
D
Gamba Osaka2–2Kyoto Sanga24 Oct · home
Pick: Gamba Osaka 56% · missed
W
Avispa Fukuoka1–2Gamba Osaka21 Oct · away
Pick: Avispa Fukuoka 45% · missed
D
Shimizu S-pulse2–2Gamba Osaka17 Oct · away
Pick: Gamba Osaka 37% · missed

About this match

Pohang Steelers and Gamba Osaka meet in AFC Champions League Elite on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Pohang Steel Yard. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Pohang Steelers win 31.7%, draw 26.5%, Gamba Osaka win 41.8%. The pick is Gamba Osaka win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.