ScoreProb
Super League Uzbekistan Round 27 2026

Buxoro vs Nasaf

Buxoro Home · Elo 1,525
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nasaf Away · Elo 1,526
Buxoro FA Stadioni, Bukhara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Buxoro win
Buxoro winPick
40.7%
Draw
26.8%
Nasaf win
32.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Buxoro history55 matches
Nasaf history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Buxoro are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,525 against 1,526. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 55 matches for Buxoro, against 1.36 over 67 for Nasaf.

  • Nasaf concede fewer

    Buxoro concede 1.36 a game, Nasaf 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Buxoro matches, against 45% for Nasaf. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Buxoro
Nasaf
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.2
ELO
1525.9
55
ELO · Matches
67
1525.2
Current Team ELO
1525.9
1525.9
Current Opponent ELO
1525.2
-0.62
Current ELO Difference
0.62
0.50
Expected score
0.50
55
History Matches
67
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.69
Overperformance
50.82
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
67
1.31
PPG
1.49
34.5%
Win rate
38.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
32.8%
38.2%
Loss rate
28.4%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
36
1.78
PPG
1.33
51.9%
Win rate
33.3%
22.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
27
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.36
72.7%
Scoring rate
80.6%
52.7%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.39
85.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
72.2%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.11
89.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
57.9%
BTTS rate
55.6%
55
History Matches
67
1.25
Goals Mean
1.36
1.18
Goals Std
1.05
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
30.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.8%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.16
74.5%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.53
70.4%
Conceding rate
86.1%
1.05
Goals against per game
0.94
68.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
67
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.30
Conceded Std
1.30
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.4%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.64
0.86
Stability score
0.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
66
18
Lead Matches
19
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.75
13
Trailing Matches
18
23.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
78.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
18
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
18
1.79
PPG
1.39
52.6%
Win rate
33.3%
21.1%
Draw rate
38.9%
26.3%
Loss rate
27.8%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.96
19
Current Competition Matches
18
1.79
Current Competition PPG
1.39
0.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.17
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.82
Portability PPG Range
1.47
56.95
Portability Score
48.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-0.62
PPG-0.18
GF-0.10
GA0.20
PPG0.40
PPG0.44
PPG0.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate3.8%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score8.28
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Current Team ELO-0.62
Current Opponent ELO0.62
Current ELO Difference-1.23
Expected score0.00
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Buxoro

D
Sogdiana1–1Buxoro30 Oct · away
Pick: Sogdiana 41% · missed
D
Buxoro0–0Surkhon23 Oct · home
Pick: Buxoro 51% · missed
W
Dinamo Samarqand1–2Buxoro17 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Samarqand 44% · missed
D
Kokand-19121–1Buxoro24 Aug · away
Pick: Buxoro 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nasaf

D
Surkhon1–1Nasaf31 Oct · away
Pick: Nasaf 45% · missed
L
Nasaf0–1Al Kuwait28 Oct · home
Pick: Nasaf 39% · missed
W
Nasaf2–1Sogdiana24 Oct · home
Pick: Nasaf 51% · hit
D
Lokomotiv0–0Nasaf17 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv 39% · missed
L
Nasaf1–2Al Wahda FC14 Oct · home
Pick: Nasaf 47% · missed

About this match

Buxoro and Nasaf meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Buxoro FA Stadioni, Bukhara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Buxoro win 40.7%, draw 26.8%, Nasaf win 32.5%. The pick is Buxoro win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.