ScoreProb
Super League Uzbekistan Round 27 2026

Pakhtakor vs Kokand-1912

Pakhtakor Home · Elo 1,627
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kokand-1912 Away · Elo 1,451
Pakhtakor Central Stadium, Tashkent Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pakhtakor win
Pakhtakor winPick
68.9%
Draw
18.0%
Kokand-1912 win
13.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.9%
No54.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Pakhtakor history65 matches
Kokand-1912 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Pakhtakor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pakhtakor are rated 176 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,627 against 1,451. On rating alone Pakhtakor would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Pakhtakor score far more

    1.66 goals a game over 65 matches for Pakhtakor, against 0.84 over 49 for Kokand-1912.

  • Pakhtakor concede fewer

    Pakhtakor concede 0.92 a game, Kokand-1912 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Pakhtakor matches, against 43% for Kokand-1912. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pakhtakor
Kokand-1912
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1626.5
ELO
1450.7
65
ELO · Matches
49
1626.5
Current Team ELO
1450.7
1450.7
Current Opponent ELO
1626.5
175.9
Current ELO Difference
-175.9
0.73
Expected score
0.27
65
History Matches
49
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.04
57.63
Overperformance
46.94
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
0.70
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
49
1.91
PPG
1.06
55.4%
Win rate
24.5%
24.6%
Draw rate
32.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
23
2.21
PPG
0.70
67.6%
Win rate
13.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
30.4%
14.7%
Loss rate
56.5%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
52.2%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
34
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
0.84
78.5%
Scoring rate
57.1%
44.6%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.57
88.2%
Scoring rate
34.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
30.4%
1.63
Goals for per game
0.89
84.2%
Scoring rate
61.1%
63.2%
BTTS rate
55.6%
65
History Matches
49
1.66
Goals Mean
0.84
1.45
Goals Std
0.82
78.5%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
21.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.92
Goals against per game
1.31
58.5%
Conceding rate
69.4%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.43
55.9%
Conceding rate
73.9%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.44
68.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
65
History Matches
49
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.31
0.98
Conceded Std
1.20
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
65.2%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
65.2%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
49
0.90
Result entropy
0.98
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.44
9.50
Stability score
2.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
49
29
Lead Matches
10
82.8%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
17
38.5%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.93
Rest days
75.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
42
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
18
2.11
PPG
0.89
57.9%
Win rate
16.7%
36.8%
Draw rate
38.9%
5.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
19
Current Competition Matches
18
2.11
Current Competition PPG
0.89
0.68
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.56
7
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.28
46.56
Portability Score
78.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO175.9
PPG0.85
GF0.82
GA-0.38
PPG1.22
PPG1.51
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.53
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.82
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate21.3%
Scored 2+ rate19.6%
Scored 3+ rate21.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score7.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.60
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate2.8%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate14.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.24
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.44
Portability PPG Range1.39
Portability Score-31.70
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.90
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO175.9
Current Opponent ELO-175.9
Current ELO Difference351.7
Expected score0.47
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pakhtakor

L
Pakhtakor2–6Al-Nassr2 Nov · home
Pick: Al-Nassr 46% · hit
W
Xorazm0–1Pakhtakor30 Oct · away
Pick: Pakhtakor 51% · hit
L
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1–0Pakhtakor26 Oct · away
Pick: Pakhtakor 38% · missed
L
Pakhtakor1–3Neftchi23 Oct · home
Pick: Pakhtakor 40% · missed
D
Navbahor1–1Pakhtakor17 Oct · away
Pick: Navbahor 39% · missed

Kokand-1912

D
Kokand-19120–0Qizilqum30 Oct · home
Pick: Kokand-1912 44% · missed
L
Olmaliq2–1Kokand-191225 Oct · away
Pick: Olmaliq 54% · hit
L
Kokand-19122–4Neftchi16 Oct · home
Pick: Neftchi 61% · hit
D
Kokand-19121–1Buxoro24 Aug · home
Pick: Buxoro 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pakhtakor and Kokand-1912 meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:15 UTC. The match is played at Pakhtakor Central Stadium, Tashkent. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pakhtakor win 68.9%, draw 18.0%, Kokand-1912 win 13.0%. The pick is Pakhtakor win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 45.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.