ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niedersachsen Germany Niedersachsen - 15 2026

BW Lohne vs Bersenbrück

BW Lohne Home · Elo 1,423
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bersenbrück Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BW Lohne win
BW Lohne winPick
52.0%
Draw
19.2%
Bersenbrück win
28.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%

How much we know

BW Lohne history58 matches
Bersenbrück history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.0%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why BW Lohne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bersenbrück are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,423. On rating alone Bersenbrück would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Bersenbrück score more

    1.43 goals a game over 58 matches for BW Lohne, against 2.00 over 51 for Bersenbrück.

  • Defences are close

    BW Lohne concede 2.03 a game, Bersenbrück 2.14.

  • Bersenbrück games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of BW Lohne matches, against 80% for Bersenbrück. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BW Lohne
Bersenbrück@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1423.1
ELO
1501.9
58
ELO · Matches
51
1423.1
Current Team ELO
1501.9
1501.9
Current Opponent ELO
1423.1
-78.81
Current ELO Difference
78.81
0.39
Expected score
0.61
58
History Matches
51
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
45.70
Overperformance
50.21
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
2.50
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
51
0.98
PPG
1.45
24.1%
Win rate
39.2%
25.9%
Draw rate
27.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
92.2%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
80.4%
41.4%
Over 3.5 rate
58.8%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
25
0.97
PPG
1.00
22.6%
Win rate
24.0%
29.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
48.4%
Loss rate
48.0%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
84.0%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
31
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
2.00
69.0%
Scoring rate
84.3%
58.6%
BTTS rate
76.5%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.72
61.3%
Scoring rate
76.0%
51.6%
BTTS rate
76.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
51
1.43
Goals Mean
2.00
1.45
Goals Std
1.41
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.3%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
58.8%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.03
Goals against per game
2.14
84.5%
Conceding rate
88.2%
1.77
Goals against per game
2.52
80.6%
Conceding rate
96.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
51
2.03
Conceded Mean
2.14
1.45
Conceded Std
1.47
58.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.8%
37.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.2%
1.77
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.5%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
4.0%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
15.5%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
4.0%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
15.5%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
51
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.11
5.39
Stability score
0.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
51
13
Lead Matches
17
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.75
23
Trailing Matches
17
21.7%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.13
Rest days
89.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
27
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
1.33
PPG
0.50
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.66
Portability PPG Range
0.91
47.48
Portability Score
55.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-78.81
PPG-0.47
GF-0.57
GA-0.10
PPG0.83
PPG-0.03
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate15.3%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score4.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate4.5%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.83
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-7.98
Rest days-6.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-78.81
Current Opponent ELO78.81
Current ELO Difference-157.6
Expected score-0.22
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BW Lohne

W
BW Lohne3–0Eintracht Braunschw. II30 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Braunschw. II 41% · missed
D
Heeslinger SC1–1BW Lohne25 Oct · away
Pick: Heeslinger SC 54% · missed
W
BW Lohne3–1Lüneburger SK Hansa17 Oct · home
Pick: BW Lohne 54% · hit
W
BW Lohne3–1Vorsfelde29 Aug · home
Pick: BW Lohne 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bersenbrück

L
Drochtersen/Assel II2–1Bersenbrück1 Nov · away
Pick: Drochtersen/Assel II 42% · hit
L
Spelle-Venhaus4–0Bersenbrück28 Oct · away
Pick: Spelle-Venhaus 56% · hit
L
Bersenbrück0–4Verden 0423 Oct · home
Pick: Bersenbrück 42% · missed
W
Vorsfelde1–3Bersenbrück18 Oct · away
Pick: Vorsfelde 42% · missed
L
Heeslinger SC4–0Bersenbrück30 Aug · away
Pick: Heeslinger SC 59% · hit

About this match

BW Lohne and Bersenbrück meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: BW Lohne win 52.0%, draw 19.2%, Bersenbrück win 28.8%. The pick is BW Lohne win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.3%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.