ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niedersachsen Germany Niedersachsen - 15 2026

Borussia Hildesheim vs Germania Egestorf

Borussia Hildesheim Home · Elo 1,477
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Germania Egestorf Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Germania Egestorf win
Borussia Hildesheim win
34.5%
Draw
22.5%
Germania Egestorf winPick
43.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Borussia Hildesheim history53 matches
Germania Egestorf history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Germania Egestorf are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Germania Egestorf are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,477. On rating alone Germania Egestorf would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 53 matches for Borussia Hildesheim, against 1.60 over 52 for Germania Egestorf.

  • Germania Egestorf concede fewer

    Borussia Hildesheim concede 1.91 a game, Germania Egestorf 1.33.

  • Borussia Hildesheim games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Borussia Hildesheim matches, against 50% for Germania Egestorf. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Borussia Hildesheim
Germania Egestorf@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.3
ELO
1524.1
53
ELO · Matches
52
1477.3
Current Team ELO
1524.1
1524.1
Current Opponent ELO
1477.3
-46.85
Current ELO Difference
46.85
0.43
Expected score
0.57
53
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.58
Overperformance
51.37
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.30
2.50
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
52
1.34
PPG
1.52
39.6%
Win rate
42.3%
15.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
45.3%
Loss rate
32.7%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.52
PPG
1.44
44.4%
Win rate
37.0%
18.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
37.0%
Loss rate
29.6%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.60
71.7%
Scoring rate
78.8%
58.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.63
81.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
59.3%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
52
1.47
Goals Mean
1.60
1.30
Goals Std
1.33
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
45.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.33
84.9%
Conceding rate
61.5%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.41
81.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.33
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
52
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.55
Conceded Std
1.34
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.3%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.2%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
15.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
15.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
52
0.92
Result entropy
0.98
2.33
Goal Difference Std
1.95
7.98
Stability score
2.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
52
12
Lead Matches
15
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.91
21
Trailing Matches
12
19.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.21
Rest days
82.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.78
0.84
Portability PPG Range
1.97
62.09
Portability Score
39.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-46.85
PPG-0.18
GF-0.12
GA0.58
PPG0.67
PPG0.07
PPG1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.58
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score5.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate13.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.47
Portability PPG Range-1.13
Portability Score22.88
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-46.85
Current Opponent ELO46.85
Current ELO Difference-93.71
Expected score-0.13
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Borussia Hildesheim

L
Borussia Hildesheim3–5Meppen II31 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Hildesheim 39% · missed
L
Eintracht Braunschw. II2–0Borussia Hildesheim23 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Braunschw. II 61% · hit
D
Borussia Hildesheim0–0Heeslinger SC18 Oct · home
Pick: Heeslinger SC 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Germania Egestorf

L
Verden 043–0Germania Egestorf1 Nov · away
Pick: Verden 04 49% · hit
D
Nordhorn2–2Germania Egestorf18 Oct · away
Pick: Nordhorn 36% · missed
D
Lüneburger SK Hansa2–2Germania Egestorf30 Aug · away
Pick: Lüneburger SK Hansa 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Borussia Hildesheim and Germania Egestorf meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Borussia Hildesheim win 34.5%, draw 22.5%, Germania Egestorf win 43.0%. The pick is Germania Egestorf win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.