ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Cadiz vs Oviedo

Cadiz Home · Elo 1,427
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oviedo Away · Elo 1,462
JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cadiz win
Cadiz winPick
44.6%
Draw
24.9%
Oviedo win
30.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Cadiz history77 matches
Oviedo history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cadiz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oviedo are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,462 against 1,427. On rating alone Oviedo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Cadiz score more

    1.22 goals a game over 77 matches for Cadiz, against 0.90 over 72 for Oviedo.

  • Oviedo concede fewer

    Cadiz concede 1.44 a game, Oviedo 1.19.

  • Cadiz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Cadiz matches, against 39% for Oviedo. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cadiz
Oviedo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1427.2
ELO
1462.2
77
ELO · Matches
72
1427.2
Current Team ELO
1462.2
1462.2
Current Opponent ELO
1427.2
-34.97
Current ELO Difference
34.97
0.45
Expected score
0.55
77
History Matches
72
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.77
Overperformance
48.44
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
72
1.14
PPG
1.19
29.9%
Win rate
29.2%
24.7%
Draw rate
31.9%
45.5%
Loss rate
38.9%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
29.9%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
34
1.27
PPG
0.85
36.6%
Win rate
17.6%
17.1%
Draw rate
32.4%
46.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
63.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
41
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
0.90
67.5%
Scoring rate
58.3%
50.6%
BTTS rate
40.3%
1.15
Goals for per game
0.91
68.3%
Scoring rate
52.9%
46.3%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
77
History Matches
72
1.22
Goals Mean
0.90
1.27
Goals Std
0.97
67.5%
Scored 1+ rate
58.3%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
11.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.19
72.7%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.65
65.9%
Conceding rate
88.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
77
History Matches
72
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.21
Conceded Std
1.10
44.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
22.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.46
3.09
Stability score
0.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
72
15
Lead Matches
17
93.3%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.69
27
Trailing Matches
22
14.8%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.82
Rest days
77.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.20
46
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.47
Portability PPG Range
1.11
71.23
Portability Score
53.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-34.97
PPG-0.05
GF0.32
GA0.25
PPG0.50
PPG0.42
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate9.2%
Scored 2+ rate11.5%
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score2.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.89
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate34.5%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score17.98
Rest days-0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.30
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO-34.97
Current Opponent ELO34.97
Current ELO Difference-69.94
Expected score-0.10
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cadiz

L
Mallorca2–1Cadiz2 Nov · away
Pick: Mallorca 48% · hit
W
Cadiz3–1AD Ceuta FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Cadiz 50% · hit
L
Granada CF2–0Cadiz18 Oct · away
Pick: Granada CF 51% · hit
D
Cadiz1–1Valladolid30 Aug · home
Pick: Cadiz 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oviedo

L
Oviedo2–3Las Palmas2 Nov · home
Pick: Las Palmas 43% · hit
D
Almeria2–2Oviedo24 Oct · away
Pick: Almeria 60% · missed
W
AD Ceuta FC1–2Oviedo18 Oct · away
Pick: Oviedo 38% · hit
W
Oviedo3–1Eibar12 Oct · home
Pick: Oviedo 34% · hit
W
Albacete0–1Oviedo29 Aug · away
Pick: Albacete 47% · missed

About this match

Cadiz and Oviedo meet in Segunda División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:15 UTC. The match is played at JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cadiz win 44.6%, draw 24.9%, Oviedo win 30.5%. The pick is Cadiz win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.