ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

FC Andorra vs Mallorca

FC Andorra Home · Elo 1,533
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mallorca Away · Elo 1,537
Estadi de la FAF, Encamp Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Andorra win
FC Andorra winPick
51.6%
Draw
25.0%
Mallorca win
23.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

FC Andorra history74 matches
Mallorca history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Andorra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,533 against 1,537. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • FC Andorra score more

    1.49 goals a game over 74 matches for FC Andorra, against 1.29 over 68 for Mallorca.

  • Defences are close

    FC Andorra concede 1.15 a game, Mallorca 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of FC Andorra matches, against 51% for Mallorca. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Andorra
Mallorca
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.9
ELO
1536.6
74
ELO · Matches
68
1532.9
Current Team ELO
1536.6
1536.6
Current Opponent ELO
1532.9
-3.71
Current ELO Difference
3.71
0.49
Expected score
0.51
74
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.67
Overperformance
52.36
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
68
1.55
PPG
1.34
43.2%
Win rate
36.8%
25.7%
Draw rate
23.5%
31.1%
Loss rate
39.7%
68.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
28.4%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
33
1.70
PPG
0.73
45.9%
Win rate
18.2%
32.4%
Draw rate
18.2%
21.6%
Loss rate
63.6%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
37.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.29
77.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
54.1%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.49
Goals for per game
0.85
75.7%
Scoring rate
57.6%
51.4%
BTTS rate
45.5%
3.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
74
History Matches
68
1.49
Goals Mean
1.29
1.42
Goals Std
1.07
77.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
35.1%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.49
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.24
67.6%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.52
59.5%
Conceding rate
81.8%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
68
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.11
Conceded Std
0.91
29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.56
2.17
Stability score
2.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
68
19
Lead Matches
21
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.76
19
Trailing Matches
22
36.8%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
75.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
31
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.76
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.94
50.04
Portability Score
39.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-3.71
PPG0.22
GF0.19
GA-0.09
PPG0.00
PPG0.98
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate2.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score0.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate12.8%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate9.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.64
Portability Score10.46
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-3.71
Current Opponent ELO3.71
Current ELO Difference-7.42
Expected score-0.01
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Andorra

W
Varea0–3FC Andorra29 Oct · away
Pick: FC Andorra 38% · hit
L
FC Andorra2–3Burgos26 Oct · home
Pick: FC Andorra 47% · missed
L
Girona2–0FC Andorra18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Andorra 42% · missed
L
FC Andorra0–1Eibar30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Andorra 51% · missed
L
Celta de Vigo II4–2FC Andorra24 Aug · away
Pick: FC Andorra 46% · missed

Mallorca

W
Mallorca2–1Cadiz2 Nov · home
Pick: Mallorca 48% · hit
D
Leganes1–1Mallorca24 Oct · away
Pick: Leganes 50% · missed
D
Eibar1–1Mallorca17 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar 45% · missed
D
Girona0–0Mallorca4 Oct · away
Pick: Girona 41% · missed
W
Mallorca3–0AD Ceuta FC30 Aug · home
Pick: Mallorca 53% · hit

About this match

FC Andorra and Mallorca meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadi de la FAF, Encamp. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Andorra win 51.6%, draw 25.0%, Mallorca win 23.5%. The pick is FC Andorra win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.