ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Cagliari vs Frosinone

Cagliari Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Frosinone Away · Elo 1,620
Unipol Domus, Cagliari Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cagliari win
Cagliari winPick
55.4%
Draw
22.2%
Frosinone win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%

How much we know

Cagliari history68 matches
Frosinone history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Cagliari are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Frosinone are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,620 against 1,524. On rating alone Frosinone would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Frosinone score more

    1.09 goals a game over 68 matches for Cagliari, against 1.67 over 64 for Frosinone.

  • Frosinone concede fewer

    Cagliari concede 1.25 a game, Frosinone 0.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Cagliari matches, against 52% for Frosinone. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cagliari
Frosinone@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.5
ELO
1620.5
68
ELO · Matches
64
1524.5
Current Team ELO
1620.5
1620.5
Current Opponent ELO
1524.5
-96.03
Current ELO Difference
96.03
0.37
Expected score
0.63
68
History Matches
64
0.02
Residual Mean
0.10
51.58
Overperformance
57.55
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
0.60
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
64
1.21
PPG
1.84
30.9%
Win rate
50.0%
27.9%
Draw rate
34.4%
41.2%
Loss rate
15.6%
72.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
19.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
29
1.53
PPG
1.86
44.1%
Win rate
51.7%
20.6%
Draw rate
31.0%
35.3%
Loss rate
17.2%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
34
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.67
67.6%
Scoring rate
87.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.52
73.5%
Scoring rate
86.2%
44.1%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
68
History Matches
64
1.09
Goals Mean
1.67
1.03
Goals Std
1.13
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
51.6%
10.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
0.97
72.1%
Conceding rate
65.6%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.03
64.7%
Conceding rate
65.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
64
1.25
Conceded Mean
0.97
0.98
Conceded Std
0.88
42.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.6%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.1%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.52
1.29
Stability score
8.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
64
14
Lead Matches
27
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.77
20
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
53.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.80
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
26
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.66
65.71
Portability Score
63.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-96.03
PPG-0.64
GF-0.58
GA0.28
PPG3.00
PPG-0.33
PPG1.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate19.9%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate12.7%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches4
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-7.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.93
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score2.19
Rest days0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-96.03
Current Opponent ELO96.03
Current ELO Difference-192.1
Expected score-0.27
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cagliari

L
Lazio2–1Cagliari1 Nov · away
Pick: Lazio 49% · hit
L
AS Roma4–2Cagliari27 Oct · away
Pick: AS Roma 57% · hit
L
Cagliari0–2Bologna24 Oct · home
Pick: Cagliari 46% · missed
L
Monza4–0Cagliari19 Oct · away
Pick: Cagliari 40% · missed
L
Cagliari0–1Inter30 Aug · home
Pick: Inter 54% · hit

Frosinone

W
Frosinone2–0Torino1 Nov · home
Pick: Frosinone 48% · hit
W
Frosinone5–1Lecce29 Oct · home
Pick: Frosinone 40% · hit
D
Atalanta4–4Frosinone25 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta 63% · missed
W
Frosinone4–2Sassuolo16 Oct · home
Pick: Frosinone 48% · hit
W
Fiorentina0–3Frosinone29 Aug · away
Pick: Fiorentina 54% · missed

About this match

Cagliari and Frosinone meet in Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Unipol Domus, Cagliari. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cagliari win 55.4%, draw 22.2%, Frosinone win 22.4%. The pick is Cagliari win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.2%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.