ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Monza vs Atalanta

Monza Home · Elo 1,577
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atalanta Away · Elo 1,606
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atalanta win
Monza win
24.4%
Draw
28.7%
Atalanta winPick
46.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

Monza history68 matches
Atalanta history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atalanta are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atalanta are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,577. On rating alone Atalanta would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Atalanta score more

    1.35 goals a game over 68 matches for Monza, against 1.51 over 83 for Atalanta.

  • Atalanta concede fewer

    Monza concede 1.34 a game, Atalanta 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Monza matches, against 51% for Atalanta. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Monza
Atalanta
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.3
ELO
1606.5
68
ELO · Matches
83
1577.3
Current Team ELO
1606.5
1606.5
Current Opponent ELO
1577.3
-29.19
Current ELO Difference
29.19
0.46
Expected score
0.54
68
History Matches
83
0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
54.86
Overperformance
55.41
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
83
1.50
PPG
1.57
42.6%
Win rate
43.4%
22.1%
Draw rate
26.5%
35.3%
Loss rate
30.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.6%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
40
1.72
PPG
1.53
50.0%
Win rate
42.5%
22.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.8%
Loss rate
32.5%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
36
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.51
73.5%
Scoring rate
77.1%
47.1%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.63
77.8%
Scoring rate
82.5%
47.2%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
83
1.35
Goals Mean
1.51
1.08
Goals Std
1.27
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
44.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.2%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.3%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.34
Goals against per game
1.13
69.1%
Conceding rate
65.1%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.20
66.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
83
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.27
Conceded Std
1.20
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.7%
19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
83
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.94
3.11
Stability score
2.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
82
16
Lead Matches
27
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
22
26.7%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
22.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
76.80
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
42
Normal Rest History Matches
59
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.68
Portability PPG Range
1.92
40.15
Portability Score
46.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-29.19
PPG-0.07
GF-0.15
GA0.21
PPG-3.00
PPG0.20
PPG-1.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score1.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.23
Portability Score-6.66
Rest days1.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.60
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-29.19
Current Opponent ELO29.19
Current ELO Difference-58.38
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Monza

L
Bologna2–1Monza31 Oct · away
Pick: Bologna 59% · hit
L
Monza1–4Napoli28 Oct · home
Pick: Napoli 51% · hit
L
Torino3–2Monza23 Oct · away
Pick: Torino 51% · hit
W
Monza4–0Cagliari19 Oct · home
Pick: Cagliari 40% · missed
W
Torino0–1Monza1 Sep · away
Pick: Monza 42% · hit

Atalanta

L
Atalanta0–3Parma2 Nov · home
Pick: Atalanta 64% · missed
D
Fiorentina2–2Atalanta29 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina 38% · missed
D
Atalanta4–4Frosinone25 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta 63% · missed
L
Ajax2–0Atalanta22 Oct · away
Pick: Ajax 44% · hit
L
AC Milan3–2Atalanta18 Oct · away
Pick: AC Milan 37% · hit

About this match

Monza and Atalanta meet in Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Monza win 24.4%, draw 28.7%, Atalanta win 46.9%. The pick is Atalanta win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.