ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain Group 7 - 10 2026

Cala Pozuelo vs Alcobendas Sport

Cala Pozuelo Home · Elo 1,514
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alcobendas Sport Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cala Pozuelo win
Cala Pozuelo winPick
35.2%
Draw
31.1%
Alcobendas Sport win
33.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

Cala Pozuelo history16 matches
Alcobendas Sport history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Cala Pozuelo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,514 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Cala Pozuelo score more

    1.38 goals a game over 16 matches for Cala Pozuelo, against 1.23 over 48 for Alcobendas Sport.

  • Defences are close

    Cala Pozuelo concede 1.25 a game, Alcobendas Sport 1.38.

  • Alcobendas Sport games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Cala Pozuelo matches, against 52% for Alcobendas Sport. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cala Pozuelo
Alcobendas Sport
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.3
ELO
1499.5
16
ELO · Matches
48
1514.3
Current Team ELO
1499.5
1499.5
Current Opponent ELO
1514.3
14.74
Current ELO Difference
-14.74
0.52
Expected score
0.48
16
History Matches
48
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
52.00
Overperformance
49.99
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
48
1.50
PPG
1.29
43.8%
Win rate
33.3%
18.8%
Draw rate
29.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
37.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
24
1.50
PPG
1.50
37.5%
Win rate
37.5%
37.5%
Draw rate
37.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
8
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
1.23
62.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.58
62.5%
Scoring rate
91.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
87.5%
16
History Matches
48
1.38
Goals Mean
1.23
1.58
Goals Std
0.96
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.4%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.38
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.42
75.0%
Conceding rate
91.7%
16
History Matches
48
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.15
Conceded Std
1.03
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.6%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
48
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.38
5.03
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
47
5
Lead Matches
11
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.70
5
Trailing Matches
14
40.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
546.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
6
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.03
—
Portability PPG Range
0.06
—
Portability Score
94.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO14.74
PPG0.21
GF0.15
GA-0.13
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate29.2%
History Matches-32
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.61
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches-32
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score4.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate36.4%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days364.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO14.74
Current Opponent ELO-14.74
Current ELO Difference29.48
Expected score0.04
History Matches-32
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance2.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cala Pozuelo

L
Colonia Moscardó1–0Cala Pozuelo31 Oct · away
Pick: Colonia Moscardó 61% · hit
D
Cala Pozuelo1–1SS Reyes II24 Oct · home
Pick: SS Reyes II 38% · missed
D
Trival Valderas2–2Cala Pozuelo18 Oct · away
Pick: Trival Valderas 69% · missed
W
Galapagar1–3Cala Pozuelo4 Oct · away
Pick: Galapagar 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alcobendas Sport

D
Alcobendas Sport1–1Rayo Vallecano II31 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Vallecano II 39% · missed
L
Las Rozas4–3Alcobendas Sport24 Oct · away
Pick: Las Rozas 51% · hit
D
Alcobendas Sport2–2Real Aranjuez17 Oct · home
Pick: Alcobendas Sport 65% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cala Pozuelo and Alcobendas Sport meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cala Pozuelo win 35.2%, draw 31.1%, Alcobendas Sport win 33.7%. The pick is Cala Pozuelo win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.