ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain Group 7 - 10 2026

Leganés II vs Colonia Moscardó

Leganés II Home · Elo 1,523
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Colonia Moscardó Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leganés II win
Leganés II winPick
54.1%
Draw
25.9%
Colonia Moscardó win
20.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%

How much we know

Leganés II history52 matches
Colonia Moscardó history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Leganés II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leganés II are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,453. On rating alone Leganés II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Leganés II score more

    1.69 goals a game over 52 matches for Leganés II, against 1.10 over 49 for Colonia Moscardó.

  • Leganés II concede fewer

    Leganés II concede 1.00 a game, Colonia Moscardó 1.65.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Leganés II matches, against 53% for Colonia Moscardó. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leganés II
Colonia Moscardó
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.2
ELO
1452.5
52
ELO · Matches
49
1523.2
Current Team ELO
1452.5
1452.5
Current Opponent ELO
1523.2
70.64
Current ELO Difference
-70.64
0.60
Expected score
0.40
52
History Matches
49
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.49
Overperformance
46.63
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
1.52
PPG
1.06
40.4%
Win rate
26.5%
30.8%
Draw rate
26.5%
28.8%
Loss rate
46.9%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.27
PPG
0.88
30.8%
Win rate
20.0%
34.6%
Draw rate
28.0%
34.6%
Loss rate
52.0%
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
26.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.69
Goals for per game
1.10
78.8%
Scoring rate
69.4%
46.2%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.84
61.5%
Scoring rate
64.0%
30.8%
BTTS rate
48.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.69
Goals Mean
1.10
1.54
Goals Std
1.05
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
24.5%
23.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
0.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.65
59.6%
Conceding rate
77.6%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.68
53.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.04
Conceded Std
1.32
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.0%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.5%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.80
1.02
Stability score
3.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
49
18
Lead Matches
11
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
45.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.61
10
Trailing Matches
19
30.0%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
88.31
Rest days
189.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.20
81.63
Portability Score
83.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO70.64
PPG0.46
GF0.59
GA-0.65
PPG0.39
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate26.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate9.5%
Scored 2+ rate21.7%
Scored 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-2.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate32.3%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate14.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-1.70
Rest days-101.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO70.64
Current Opponent ELO-70.64
Current ELO Difference141.3
Expected score0.20
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leganés II

D
Leganés II2–2Trival Valderas25 Oct · home
Pick: Leganés II 36% · missed
W
RC Alcobendas1–2Leganés II18 Oct · away
Pick: Leganés II 35% · hit
D
Móstoles1–1Leganés II4 Oct · away
Pick: Leganés II 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Colonia Moscardó

W
Colonia Moscardó1–0Cala Pozuelo31 Oct · home
Pick: Colonia Moscardó 61% · hit
D
Rayo Vallecano II1–1Colonia Moscardó25 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano II 51% · missed
D
Colonia Moscardó1–1Las Rozas18 Oct · home
Pick: Las Rozas 43% · missed
W
Colonia Moscardó5–1Pozuelo Alarcón4 Oct · home
Pick: Colonia Moscardó 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Leganés II and Colonia Moscardó meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Leganés II win 54.1%, draw 25.9%, Colonia Moscardó win 20.0%. The pick is Leganés II win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.