Cardiff Metropolitan U19 vs Stabæk U19
Cardiff Metropolitan U19
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stabæk U19
Match result probability Model pick: Cardiff Metropolitan U19 win
Cardiff Metropolitan U19 winPick
40.5%
Draw
24.6%
Stabæk U19 win
34.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.7%
No43.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
How much we know
Cardiff Metropolitan U19 history0 matches
Stabæk U19 history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Cardiff Metropolitan U19
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre4 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Cardiff Metropolitan U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cardiff Metropolitan U19
Stabæk U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1507.6
0
ELO · Matches
18
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1507.6
1507.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-7.64
Current ELO Difference
7.64
0.49
Expected score
0.51
0
History Matches
18
—
Residual Mean
0.03
—
Overperformance
51.50
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.20
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Goals against per game
2.40
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.30
—
Goals for per game
3.00
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Win rate
40.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.86
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.63
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
18
—
PPG
1.50
—
Win rate
44.4%
—
Draw rate
16.7%
—
Loss rate
38.9%
—
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
—
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
—
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.55
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
8
—
PPG
1.00
—
Win rate
25.0%
—
Draw rate
25.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
—
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
0
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
2.94
—
Scoring rate
94.4%
—
BTTS rate
72.2%
—
Goals for per game
1.75
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
87.5%
0
History Matches
18
—
Goals Mean
2.94
—
Goals Std
2.70
—
Scored 1+ rate
94.4%
—
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
—
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.72
—
Conceding rate
77.8%
—
Goals against per game
2.25
—
Conceding rate
87.5%
0
History Matches
18
—
Conceded Mean
1.72
—
Conceded Std
1.45
—
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
18
—
Result entropy
0.93
—
Goal Difference Std
3.55
—
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
18
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
3
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
—
First Half Goals For Mean
1.28
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.67
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
90.28
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
3
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
14
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.11
—
Portability PPG Range
0.23
—
Portability Score
81.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-7.64
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
History Matches-8
History Matches-18
History Matches-18
History Matches-18
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches-3
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest History Matches-14
Current Team ELO-7.64
Current Opponent ELO7.64
Current ELO Difference-15.28
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cardiff Metropolitan U19
L
Stabæk U198–0Cardiff Metropolitan U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Stabæk U19 60% · hit L
UNA Strassen U191–0Cardiff Metropolitan U1914 Oct · away
Pick: UNA Strassen U19 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Stabæk U19
W
Stabæk U198–0Cardiff Metropolitan U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Stabæk U19 60% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Cardiff Metropolitan U19 and Stabæk U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Cyncoed Campus, Cardiff. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Cardiff Metropolitan U19 win 40.5%, draw 24.6%, Stabæk U19 win 34.9%. The pick is Cardiff Metropolitan U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.