ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World Semi-finals 2026

Žilina U19 vs HJK U19

Žilina U19 Home · Elo 1,500
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
HJK U19 Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: B. Dechepy Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Žilina U19 win
Žilina U19 winPick
44.3%
Draw
22.1%
HJK U19 win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

Žilina U19 history6 matches
HJK U19 history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Žilina U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,520. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • HJK U19 score far more

    1.17 goals a game over 6 matches for Žilina U19, against 1.88 over 8 for HJK U19.

  • Žilina U19 concede fewer

    Žilina U19 concede 1.17 a game, HJK U19 1.75.

  • HJK U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Žilina U19 matches, against 63% for HJK U19. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Žilina U19
HJK U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.0
ELO
1519.9
6
ELO · Matches
8
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1519.9
1519.9
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-19.95
Current ELO Difference
19.95
0.47
Expected score
0.53
6
History Matches
8
0.03
Residual Mean
0.12
50.72
Overperformance
53.55
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
6
Matches
8
1.33
PPG
1.63
1.17
Goals for per game
1.88
1.17
Goals against per game
1.75
33.3%
Win rate
37.5%
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.88
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.05
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.75
1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.92
1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.89
1.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
8
1.33
PPG
1.63
33.3%
Win rate
37.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
12.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
4
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.88
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
8
1.17
Goals Mean
1.88
0.90
Goals Std
1.05
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.17
Goals against per game
1.75
66.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
8
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.07
Conceded Std
1.92
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
8
1.00
Result entropy
0.89
1.29
Goal Difference Std
2.32
0.00
Stability score
11.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
8
2
Lead Matches
3
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.78
2
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
8
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
252.0
Rest days
252.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
5
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-19.95
PPG-0.29
GF-0.71
GA-0.58
PPG0.50
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.29
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.71
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.33
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.85
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.85
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-1.02
Stability score-11.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-19.95
Current Opponent ELO19.95
Current ELO Difference-39.89
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-2.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Žilina U19

L
HJK U193–0Žilina U1928 Oct · away
Pick: HJK U19 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

HJK U19

W
HJK U193–0Žilina U1928 Oct · home
Pick: HJK U19 45% · hit
W
FC Ballkani U191–2HJK U1914 Oct · away
Pick: HJK U19 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Žilina U19 and HJK U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Žilina U19 win 44.3%, draw 22.1%, HJK U19 win 33.6%. The pick is Žilina U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.