ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 Home · Elo 1,520
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Energie Cottbus U19 Away · Elo 1,581
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Energie Cottbus U19 win
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 win
29.6%
Draw
17.5%
Energie Cottbus U19 winPick
52.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.4%
No30.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.5%
Under 2.522.5%

How much we know

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 history40 matches
Energie Cottbus U19 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 3 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Energie Cottbus U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Energie Cottbus U19 are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,520. On rating alone Energie Cottbus U19 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Carl Zeiss Jena U19 score more

    2.60 goals a game over 40 matches for Carl Zeiss Jena U19, against 2.15 over 46 for Energie Cottbus U19.

  • Defences are close

    Carl Zeiss Jena U19 concede 1.95 a game, Energie Cottbus U19 1.87.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    83% of Carl Zeiss Jena U19 matches, against 76% for Energie Cottbus U19. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Energie Cottbus U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.2
ELO
1580.8
40
ELO · Matches
46
1520.2
Current Team ELO
1580.8
1580.8
Current Opponent ELO
1520.2
-60.65
Current ELO Difference
60.65
0.41
Expected score
0.59
40
History Matches
46
0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
51.53
Overperformance
55.27
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
3.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
3.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
4.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
46
1.65
PPG
1.72
52.5%
Win rate
52.2%
7.5%
Draw rate
15.2%
40.0%
Loss rate
32.6%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
82.5%
Over 2.5 rate
76.1%
67.5%
Over 3.5 rate
56.5%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
26
1.70
PPG
1.58
55.0%
Win rate
50.0%
5.0%
Draw rate
7.7%
40.0%
Loss rate
42.3%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
65.0%
Over 3.5 rate
65.4%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.51
20
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.60
Goals for per game
2.15
92.5%
Scoring rate
82.6%
70.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
2.55
Goals for per game
2.08
90.0%
Scoring rate
80.8%
70.0%
BTTS rate
53.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
40
History Matches
46
2.60
Goals Mean
2.15
1.89
Goals Std
1.88
92.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
67.5%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
47.5%
Scored 3+ rate
34.8%
2.55
Venue Goals Mean
2.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.95
Goals against per game
1.87
77.5%
Conceding rate
71.7%
2.10
Goals against per game
2.27
80.0%
Conceding rate
73.1%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
40
History Matches
46
1.95
Conceded Mean
1.87
1.60
Conceded Std
1.85
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
35.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.4%
2.10
Venue Conceded Mean
2.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
7.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
7.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
46
0.82
Result entropy
0.90
2.83
Goal Difference Std
3.08
18.16
Stability score
9.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
46
17
Lead Matches
19
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.96
15
Trailing Matches
15
13.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
1.23
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
1.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
17
Normal Rest History Matches
20
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.83
Portability PPG Range
0.67
38.85
Portability Score
65.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-60.65
PPG-0.07
GF0.45
GA0.08
PPG-1.25
PPG0.12
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate9.9%
Scored 2+ rate15.3%
Scored 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.90
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score8.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.91
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.53
Portability PPG Range1.16
Portability Score-27.09
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-60.65
Current Opponent ELO60.65
Current ELO Difference-121.3
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

L
Hertha BSC U194–1Carl Zeiss Jena U191 Nov · away
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 57% · hit
L
Eintracht Braunsch U193–0Carl Zeiss Jena U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 47% · missed
L
Carl Zeiss Jena U190–3Union Berlin U1918 Oct · home
Pick: Union Berlin U19 47% · hit
L
Bayer Leverkusen U196–0Carl Zeiss Jena U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Energie Cottbus U19

D
Energie Cottbus U193–3Hallescher FC U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Energie Cottbus U19 61% · missed
L
Union Berlin U194–3Energie Cottbus U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Energie Cottbus U19 42% · missed
L
MSV Duisburg U193–0Energie Cottbus U1930 Aug · away
Pick: MSV Duisburg U19 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 and Energie Cottbus U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 win 29.6%, draw 17.5%, Energie Cottbus U19 win 52.9%. The pick is Energie Cottbus U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.5%. Both teams to score: 69.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.